27th Feb 2019 https://nfind.uk/brexit_cliff_edge/index.php/newsletter=13 brexit_cliff_edge

Jobs at Risk

The Independent Brexit brings us nightmarish new headlines from the business world on most days at present. Declining manufacturing growth 44bnworth of transactions in jeaopardy every day and retailers chiming in to say prices of some foods could rise by 45 per cent to say its looking dicey out there is putting it mildly. The fact that former Brexit secretary David Davis chose to deny the UK was heading into a Mad Maxstyle dystopia is arguably quite telling. Even Somerset Capital Management a firm cofounded by Brexiteer Jacob ReesMogg has warned that the UKs departure from the EU could cause considerable uncertainty. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-companies-leaving-uk-list-job-cuts-eu-no-deal-customs-union-a8792296.html 26th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

City A.M. UK growth is guaranteed to fall in the event of a nodeal Brexit the Bank of Englands governor Mark Carney has told MPs. The Bank slashed its UK growth forecast for 2019 to 1.2 per cent earlier this month down from the 1.7 per cent forecast in November even on the assumption of a Brexit deal and smooth transition. http://www.cityam.com/273837/uk-growth-guaranteed-fall-no-deal-brexit-mark-carney-warns 26th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

@PickardJE Dexeu has published NoDeal analysis UK economy would be 6.39 smaller in the long term in a no deal scenario after around 15 years than it otherwise would have been when compared with todays arrangements assuming no action is taken https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1100446641038020608 26th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

The Guardian While the gloomiest of economic forecasts made ahead of the EU referendum in 2016 might not have come to pass increasing evidence has emerged of the gradual damage the vote unleashed for the economy. This month a member of the Bank of Englands monetary policy committee Gertjan Vlieghe put the cost at 40bn a year of lost GDP growth compared to a vote to remain twoandahalf years ago. Thats about 800m a week he said which is more than double what the leave campaign claimed could be saved on EU membership fees and instead spent on the NHS. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/26/brexit-uk-economy-february-growth-trade 26th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

BBC The pound has hit a 21month high against the euro following increased speculation about a delay to Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May said in the Commons that if no deal was agreed and if a nodeal exit was rejected then there could be a short extension to the date for Britain to leave the EU. At one point sterling hit 1.1643 its highest level since May 2017. However Mrs Mays concession was not as wideranging as investors had hoped causing sterling to dip again. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47372955 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Independent A German hospital is trying to lure NHS nurses to leave the UK after Brexit with promises of better pay weather and food. The University Hospital of Dusseldorf has placed adverts in two Polish newspapers published in Britain hoping to convince Poles currently working in NHS hospitals to swap Britain for Germany. The adverts written in German and Polish feature Dusseldorfs attractive skyline against blue skies with the River Rhine in the foreground. As well as telling Polish nurses they could boost their salaries the adverts also point out Germany had better weather and cuisine than Britain. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-brexit-nhs-nurses-hospital-poland-eu-a8798006.html 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian A nodeal Brexit could result in failures of social care providers that may put vulnerable adults at risk and seriously affect councils and the NHS according to a leaked civil service document. The official warnings are contained within a Department of Health and Social Care presentation passed to the Guardian that has been prepared for a meeting of its EU exit delivery board to be held on Tuesday. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/26/no-deal-brexit-could-put-vulnerable-people-at-risk-officials-warn 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian The chief executive of Vauxhall owner PSA Group said the carmaker would not shy away from unpopular decisions including shutting factories if there is a nodeal Brexit. Carlos Tavares said PSA has built up stockpiles of parts and products in preparation for disruption and that the bureaucracies of supply chain are going to be disruptive if there is a nodeal Brexit. However Tavares also said that the Vauxhall brands appeal to Britons could provide the company protection not available to European rivals in the UKs large car market. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/26/no-deal-brexit-vauxhall-says-it-wont-shy-away-from-the-dark-side 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian A woman who has been on kidney dialysis for 21 years has told how she fears she could die in a nodeal Brexit because irresponsible politicians are playing with peoples lives. She says she is so concerned that she is prepared to go on dialysis strike outside Downing Street to drive home the dangers facing her and other home dialysis patients. Madeleine Warren needs a daily supply of 15 consumables including syringes blood lines and acid fluid to allow her to conduct home dialysis five nights a week but the supply is threatened in a nodeal scenario as half of the items are made in the EU. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/26/beyond-insane-why-one-woman-fears-no-deal-brexit-could-kill-her 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Bloomberg Some Irish haulage companies are looking at avoiding the UK as a stepping stone to mainland Europe and switching to direct ferry routes from Ireland to France Belgium the Netherlands and Spain. CLdN Cobelfret SA Irish Ferries and Brittany Ferries have all added extra rollon rolloff caapcity on direct routes to Europe any delays in customs check jeopardise haulage contract business particularly with food delieveries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-26/britain-s-other-irish-border-is-also-a-big-brexit-problem 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Financial Times Theresa May has decided to protect sensitive agricultural and manufacturing sectors if Britain leaves the EU without a deal but to slash duties on all other goods imports in a nodeal Brexit. While many British farmers are intensely worried about being wiped out by cheap imports the decision to use tariffs to protect products such as beef lamb milk and cheese would increase the price of many foodstuffs from the EU and expose other products to competition from other parts of the world https://www.ft.com/content/7bc687cc-3922-11e9-b856-5404d3811663 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Financial Times Despite all the industrys planning many potential problems are beyond its control such as congestion at ports and the regulatory regime on both sides of the English Channel. Both could affect whether there are sufficient supplies of vital drugs. Moreover both the UK government and business have recognised that investment in the sector could be dented because Brexit implies extra costs for pharmaceutical companies which in turn could affect patients access to medicines. David Jefferys an executive at Eisai the Japanese pharma company who has the regulation brief at the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry said companies could not eliminate the possibility of patients facing drug shortages in the event of nodeal. https://www.ft.com/content/bcb554da-35cf-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Reuters Britains shooting parties may find themselves short of pheasants and partridges to kill next season if transport delays prevent chicks being imported from France game exporters say. 40 percent of the pheasants and nine in every 10 of the partridges shot in Britain are imported nearly all from France where exporters specialise in breeds that are popular in Britain such as ringneck pheasants and redlegged partridges. It is mainly dayold chicks that will be a problem we only have 24 hours to send them over said Denis Bourasseau whose company Gibovendee in western France controls about half the exports of game bird eggs and hatchlings to Britain. There is a real risk for British hunters in case of disrupted logistics be it a hard Brexit or not. If we can no longer ensure the welfare of animals concretely we will no longer be able to export them. He estimates British shoots will see about a 10 percent reduction in the 40 million gamebirds released each year as a result of Brexit. Shortages would have been greater in the past when most game birds were exported live. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-brexit-shooting/brexit-may-clip-wings-of-uk-game-shooters-idUKKCN1QF1TB?feedType=RSS&ampfeedName=domesticNews 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Daily Mail A Brexit deal desperately needed to avoid disastrous consequences for the NHS. Any Brexit is negative for the NHS but No Deal must be avoided. Leaving the EU leaves hospitals struggling to fill jobs and supply medicines the report concludes https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6745263/Any-form-Brexit-hurt-NHS-No-Deal-worst-warns-leading-medical-journal.html 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Sixth Axis Jas Purewal lawyer and cofounder of Games4EU suggest that with the current deal on the table the UK will lose the EU laws on data adequacy and immediately replace them with a copy. If the EU moves ahead with further regulation of interactive entertainment the current Brexit direction of travel means the regulation would go ahead without British involvement but still be binding on the UK both formally as a result of any likely exit deal and practically given the size of the EU market and the publishers strong preference for common EU products wherever possible he explained. We will also lose access to EU startup grants which can be in the millions of euros these have been used by new studios to kick start their business. https://www.thesixthaxis.com/2019/02/26/reports-brexit-will-hurt-the-uk-games-industry-and-reduce-investment/ 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Fish Information and Services The Minister talked about the continuing preparedness work that the Government as a whole was doing and the specific work in relation to fisheries at both national and EU level. Today was about ensuring that our fishing representatives are fully informed of the preparedness work that is underway. If the EU fleet is excluded from UK waters it would have serious implications for the Irish fleet explained Creed. To minimize that possible impact there must be a coordinated EU level response by the Commission relevant Member States and fisheries stakeholders he continued. https://www.fis.com/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?country=0&ampmonthyear=&ampl=e&ampid=101735&ampndb=1&ampdf=0 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Advanced Television Carolyn McCall ITVs CEO warned in November last year that adincome for the fourth quarter to December 31st could fall by 3 per cent and that last month could suffer by as much as 8 per cent. Patrick Wellington an analyst at investment bank Morgan Stanley suggests in a note to clients that adrevenues could slide by up to 20 per cent during February and that there would be a modest recovery in April flat in May but tumbling between 15 per cent 20 per cent in June and July although those months last year also saw the peak benefits of the World Cup football screenings. https://advanced-television.com/2019/02/26/brexit-itv-could-suffer/ 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Shields Gazette Consumers are being urged to take steps to protect themselves after a government publication warned that scams could increase during Brexit. The document which looks at the impact of a no deal Brexit on financial services warns there may be a greater risk of scams during any period of change. https://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/how-to-protect-yourself-against-scams-during-brexit-period-of-change-1-9616645 26th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Reuters A British exit from the EU without a deal would have an immediate and drastic impact on availability of medicines and vaccines as well as affecting health system funding and staffing experts warned on Monday. Although a nodeal Brexit was the worst scenario even a negotiated divorce from the European Union would also damage the National Health Service NHS the experts said in a review published in The Lancet journal. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brexit-health-nhs/brexit-to-harm-uks-cherished-health-service-experts-say-idUSKCN1QE2P9 27th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian Delaying Britains departure from the EU would be better for the economy in the longer term but the move could also have a damaging impact on firms that have spent two years preparing for a 29 March exit and now face the prospect of planning for a double cliffedge in March and June business leaders have warned. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/26/delay-to-brexit-could-mean-a-damaging-double-cliff-edge 27th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Sky News https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-buys-herself-yet-more-time-on-brexit-with-promise-to-mps-11648881 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Belfast Telegraph https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/theresa-may-pledges-vote-on-brexit-delay-if-mps-reject-nodeal-amid-uproar-in-the-commons-37856327.html 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47373996 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The News Letter Prime Minister Theresa May has promised to give MPs a vote on extending Brexit negotiations or withdrawing from the EU without a deal if her plan is rejected next month. In a dramatic statement to the House of Commons Mrs May confirmed that she will put her Withdrawal Agreement including whatever additional assurances she has secured from Brussels to a meaningful vote by March 12. If that fails MPs will be offered two separate votes the following day one on a nodeal Brexit and the other on requesting an extension to the twoyear Article 50 negotiation process to delay EU withdrawal beyond March 29. The sequence of votes will be proposed in an amendable motion tabled by the Prime Minister for debate and vote in the Commons on Wednesday. https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-offers-mps-vote-on-no-deal-brexit-and-chance-to-extend-exit-date-beyond-march-29-1-8825346 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Politics Ian Dunt nails Prime Minister Theresa Mays obfuscation and intentional halftruths in an excellent article about how she is doing just enough to keep moving the nation closer to her Brexit. She conceded some of the ground proposed in the CooperLetwin amendment to delay leaving the EU but not enough to bind her hands legally. She tacitly admitted that if we extended it would only be to the eve of the European Elections and she baulked at the UK participating in them. With a legislative mountain of work still to do even two months more would not be enough. May has in fact signalled there are two cliff edge Brexits not one and the second one is the eve of the EU elections in May http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02/26/may-s-article-50-extension-is-a-trick-to-take-us-to-the-real 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Daily Mirror Labour has announced plans for the party to vote in favour of a second EU referendum. In a bombshell development 32 days before Brexit the party said it will put forward or support an amendment in favour of a socalled Peoples Vote. It is still unclear exactly what form the partys backing for a second referendum would take and what conditions could be put on it. A prominent Labour MP said it will only happen next month when MPs vote on Theresa Mays final Brexit deal. But its being seen as a major step forward by Remainers in the party after months of lobbying the leadership which previously only had a public vote as an option on the table. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-brexit-labour-back-second-14052198 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian If an alternative arrangement that worked actually existed or was likely to exist in the next couple of years Brexiteers would have already accepted the backstop knowing they could easily replace it with their idea during the transition. The fact that they wont bet on themselves tells you all you need to know about what they have in the locker. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/26/hard-brexit-united-ireland-second-referendum-dup 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Express.co.uk Jean Asselborn who served as deputy prime minister of Luxembourg under Mr Juncker said the EU should allow Britain to nominate members of the European Parliament for a short period. Mr Asselborn now Luxembourgs foreign minister said the move would allow the UK to participate in Mays elections but would not tie British MEPs to Brussels. The 69yearold told Reuters any second referendum was likely to push the timetable back by six months or more. Mr Asselborn explained the European Parliament elections in May were a problem but did not need to be a stumbling block. https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1092621/brexit-news-eu-deal-vote-second-referendum 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Bloomberg Whether another vote comes to pass or Brexit is delayed now depends very much on if the prime minister can convince lawmakers in her own party to back her deal. It is one of the more curious twists of the Brexit drama that this job and thus the fate of Theresa May and her divorce deal falls to a lawyer few had heard of a year ago. There is a simple reason for that Geoffrey Cox may be the only official left who critics of the prime ministers deal feel they can trust. It was the attorney generals damning November legal advice which the government was forced to publish that largely motivated parliament to reject her deal in January. May is now hoping Cox will change his opinion and help her win over enough votes to pass the settlement agreement next month. Failing that the fate of Brexit looks to be truly out of her hands. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-25/the-fate-of-brexit-hinges-on-geoffrey-cox-not-jeremy-corbyn 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

iNews One of Britains top polling experts has said his model shows voters desire to remain in the EU is currently commanding a narrow but consistent majority but warned this depends on nonvoters who back Remain turning up to vote in any future referendum. Sir John Curtice Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde told BBC Radio 4s Today Programme on Tuesday that Remain is polling ahead of Leave as he discussed the Labour Partys decision to endorse a second referendum between Theresa Mays Brexit deal and staying in the EU. https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-polls-latest-john-curtice-remain-lead-leave-non-voters/ 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Independent An emailed news release to journalists said he would tell them the party will put forward or support an amendment in favour of a public vote to prevent a damaging Tory Brexit. It is not yet clear when he will put forward such an amendment or when there would be a suitable amendment for him to support. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-brexit-second-referendum-corbyn-policy-explained-a8797716.html 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Daily Mirror The Labour leader dropped a welcome bombshell with news tonight that he would throw his weight behind a second referendum but there are fears he may damage electoral chances in key Leavevoting marginals. Jeremy Corbyn last night vowed Labour would do everything it could to stop Britain crashing out of the EU with a nodeal he warned would be disastrous for the country. And the Labour leader finally backed a plan for a second referendum despite fears it could cost him vital votes. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/corbyn-warned-party-lose-heartlands-14052647 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Independent MPs from the newlyformed Independent Group have tabled a amendment seeking to pave the way for a second Brexit referendum. The move comes after Labours announcement the party would back attempts in the Commons for a fresh public vote if it fails to force MPs to adopt its own Brexit plans in a series of votes on Wednesday evening in the chamber. The fresh bid has the support of MPs in the Scottish National Party the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru increasing the chances of it being selected by the Commons Speaker on Wednesday morning. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/independent-group-brexit-deadlock-eu-referendum-peoples-vote-a8798501.html 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC Theresa May has bowed to pressure from a group of Tory MPs and ministers and agreed to give Parliament a vote on delaying the UKs departure from the EU on 29 March. This will take place only if MPs reject her Brexit deal for a second time and then also say no to the UK leaving the EU without a comprehensive legally binding agreement the socalled nodeal scenario. With just 31 days to go Parliament has yet to approve the terms of withdrawal negotiated with the EU. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47355968 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Herald Scotland Theresa Mays screeching Uturn on giving MPs the chance to delay Exit Day has been branded a betrayal by Tory Brexiteers who suspect it is part of a plot to stop Brexit. The backlash to Mrs Mays dramatic move came as a UK Government analysis on a nodeal scenario warned Britons were largely not prepared for such an outcome which would result in higher food prices delays at Dover lasting months and an extra 13 billion hit in costs to businesses. https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17461378.tory-brexiteers-cry-plot-and-betrayal-after-theresa-may-u-turns-on-delaying-brexit/ 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Metro.co.uk Labour appears to have finally backed a Peoples Vote but now is not the time to get complacent. Now is the time to continue the work organisations Our Future Our Choice OFOC For Our Futures Sake FFS and the young people of this country have done so far. https://metro.co.uk/2019/02/26/labour-finally-backing-peoples-vote-victory-battle-far-8746275/ 26th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Bloomberg In just over a month the U.K. is meant to be departing the union its belonged to for 40 years but the outlook has never looked more uncertain. Mays hands are increasingly tied by an unpopular divorce deal she sealed with the EU but that Parliament has rejected by a landslide. Brexit has proved to be such a divisive issue that both mainstream parties have suffered defections businesses are panicking and voters are exasperated. Delaying Brexit has the potential to split Mays Cabinet and her ruling party triggering a rebellion from Brexitsupporting Tories who might even try to bring down her government. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-24/eu-is-said-to-mull-idea-of-proposing-brexit-extension-to-2021 25th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Telegraph The Government is making plans to pay billions of euros to Brussels to settle large parts of the 39bn Brexit divorce bill even in the event of a no deal the Telegraph can reveal. Ministers signed off the inprinciple decision on Monday at a meeting of the Brexit no deal preparedness cabinet committee according to senior Whitehall sources. Under a plan agreed on Monday the Government will table an executive order or Statutory Instrument in the final days of the Brexit negotiations to create the legal foundations for future payments to Brussels. This flies in the face of hardline Brexiteers hopes that No Deal would mean the UK simply walking away. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/25/government-planning-pay-billions-brussels-even-event-no-dealbrexit/ 25th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Financial Times Just like Greece the UK lacked an understanding of the EUs political and institutional dynamics. This led to a flawed negotiating strategy ... As with Grexit time has worked in the EUs favour. By 2015 the EU was better prepared to manage a possible Grexit so it is today with Brexit Mr Papaconstantinou writes. He draws attention to the UKs shambolic internal decisionmaking on Brexit so similar to the manner in which one Greek government after another lost the EUs trust by appearing unable to make up its mind keep promises or refrain from provocative complaints about EU bullying and blindness. All this reinforced the EUs inclination to embrace caution and to focus on its own unity he says. https://www.ft.com/content/be778c0a-39b9-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent The rich are getting richer while the poor get poorer according to official statistics dealing a heavy blow to Theresa Mays claim to be tackling burning injustices. They showed the incomes of the richest fifth of households grew by 4.7 per cent last year while the incomes of the poorest fifth of households fell by 1.6 per cent. The respected Resolution Foundation thinktank blamed the controversial freeze on benefit levels adding to problems caused by higher inflation following the Brexit referendum. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/inequality-benefits-freeze-ons-brexit-theresa-may-labour-austerity-a8797416.html 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Sky News Despite warnings of the impact of a nodeal Brexit members of the public and businesses are not preparing for such a scenario a government document has said. A report drawn up for ministers paints a pessimistic picture of preparations for nodeal noting that a third of the most critical projects to get Britain ready for such a scenario are not on track. The document which sets out the implications for businesses and trade if Britain leaves the EU without a deal also claims warnings are not getting through to businesses and members of the public. https://news.sky.com/story/public-and-businesses-are-not-preparing-for-a-no-deal-brexit-government-document-says-11649181 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Yorkshire Post Matthew Parris a onetime Tory MP wrote a devastating critique of the PMs current modus operandi. Warnings are delivered to her and ignored. Plans are run by her unacknowledged. Messages are sent to her unanswered. She has become the unperson on Downing Street the living embodiment of the closed door he wrote. And while this criticism in The Times not subsequently denied by Downing Street reflects poorly on Mrs May who should have heeded all those including The Yorkshire Post who advised her to appoint a strong deputy to take charge of domestic politics while she focused on Brexit it shows Ministers in an even worse light as they appear to abdicate their duties while hoping Transport Secretary Chris Graylings myriad failings over trains ferries and much else will mask their own deficiencies. https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/tom-richmond-i-don-t-know-should-not-be-any-government-s-way-of-running-the-country-as-brexit-crisis-deepens-1-9616027 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Belfast Telegraph Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has been warned the party risks catastrophic damage to support in leavesupporting seats after backing a second referendum on Brexit. Mr Corbyn said if Theresa Mays Brexit deal gets through Parliament there must be a confirmatory public vote. The shift in policy which would see voters asked to decide between a deal and remaining in the EU won plaudits from Remainsupporting MPs but led to warnings of electoral disaster in some of Labours heartlands. https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/corbyn-faces-backlash-over-second-brexit-referendum-plan-37856781.html 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC Speaking to BBC Radio 4s the World At One Mr Bebb said Most people in the Commons know full well that even if the prime ministers deal was to be put in front of the house tomorrow and pass we would still need an extension of article 50 in order to get the legislation that needs to be passed in order to allow the prime ministers deal to operate to be put in place. The reality is that were not currently in a situation where we can leave the European Union because our legal system is not currently in a situation where that can be done. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47373425 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent International trade secretary Liam Fox says a nodeal Brexit is survivable. So is rickets and and getting bitten by a Komodo dragon but I wouldnt describe those as exciting opportunities. Hard to believe but unmistakeably dystopian the EU Exit and Trade Preparedness Committee has been charged with exploring preparation for parts of the country geographically vulnerable to food shortages and sourcing alternative food for schools hospitals and prions. Our jails forced to go without porridge. Imagine. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-leaving-eu-mad-max-dystopia-theresa-may-david-davis-food-shortages-rioting-a8797101.html 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Channel 4 News The government has tonight given its own assessment of the economic impact of a no deal and its a sobering read. It accepts that the flow of goods through Dover and the Channel Tunnel could be significantly reduced for months and that could push up food prices. And it says a big part of the problem is that many businesses are still not preparing for no deal. https://www.channel4.com/news/no-deal-brexit-could-raise-food-prices-says-government-assessment 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Bloomberg Gilles Moec chief European economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Peter Dixon global equities economist at Commerzbank comment on the outlook for the UK company pointing out that news today has simply delayed the cliffedge exit not taken it off the table https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-02-26/brexit-cliff-edge-merely-delayed-not-off-the-table-baml-says-video 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Business Insider The UK Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs is set to hold an emergency meeting with business leaders on Tuesday. They are expected to discuss emergency nodeal Brexit plans after the government confirmed last week that it does not have enough pallets structures used to transport goods for UK companies to export to the European Union in a nodeal Brexit. The extraordinary acknowledgment left affected industry leaders baffled. Labour criticised the incompetency and lack of forward planning. https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-michael-gove-ministers-to-hold-emergency-meeting-over-no-deal-chaos-2019-2 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC The government has published its assessment of the impact of a nodeal Brexit on business and trade. The report said some food prices are likely to increase and customs checks could cost business 13bn a year in a nodeal scenario. It also said there was little evidence that businesses are preparing in earnest. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47379308 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Belfast Newsletter Mike Nesbitt who stepped down as Ulster Unionist leader almost two years ago but remains an MLA said that many people in Northern Ireland feel diminished as a result of Brexit and he suggested that it may be the biggest own goal by unionists since the creation of Northern Ireland almost a century ago. https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/mike-nesbitt-some-unionists-are-now-weighing-up-irish-unity-1-8824491 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Financial Times A softer withdrawal or a second referendum are the only realistic options...an extension must be accompanied by a new direction. The country deserves something better than the shambles of the past six months. The hardliners have had more than two years to convince parliament of their vision of Brexit. They have failed. Now as MPs finally find their voices there is an opportunity to forge a crossparty consensus for a more workable Brexit. https://www.ft.com/content/8479c9e0-39ce-11e9-b856-5404d3811663 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Times The hard Leavers of the ERG have obstructed the path to Brexit and its time they made some honest decisions. In other words if you really believe your own propaganda you would become advocates for a second vote. You can complain and say it shows the establishment has failed but tactically its an obviously less risky path than the one you are on now. The truth is I think you dont believe your own propaganda. You know that Mrs Mays Brexit is much more than Brino and you arent remotely confident that you could defend a nodeal Brexit. For all your talk of having a mandate for leaving on WTO terms you are painfully aware that youd struggle with the proposition in a prolonged national debate. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e17ffe2a-39e2-11e9-ac2f-7ff26270aa53 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Evening Standard There is now no time left. We need to level with the public about what the Brexit options on the table mean for them. To do anything less is a dereliction of our duty as public servants. It is now abundantly clear that the Government has one risky strategy to deliver Brexit use distraction and displacement activity to run down the clock and ram through a deal by threatening MPs with the unconscionable choice of backing the Prime Minister or a disorderly exit from the EU. This is not the stuff of statecraft. https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/it-s-time-to-be-honest-about-may-s-deal-and-delay-brexit-a4076786.html 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Sun Britain is now unlikely to leave the EU until the end of June after hardline Brexiteers warned a Remainers revolt will not end Parliaments deadlock. Theresa May was forced to offer MPs a three month extension to Article 50 talks to avoid a No Deal spin out in just 30 days time. The PM caved in to the demand to stop 20 ministers resigning to back a bid by Parliament to enforce the delay in a Commons vote. No10 now hopes the real threat of a Brexit delay will win round unhappy Tory MP Leavers to back her revised EU deal in a new showdown Commons vote on March 12. But senior European Research Group figures refused to blink and instead said it is still highly likely they will vote it down. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8517970/brexit-delay-june-parliament-deadlock/ 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Daily Mirror Ministers have handed a contract for shipping critical NHS supplies in the event of a no deal Brexit to the firm behind the KFC chicken shortage fiasco. The Mirror has learned that a Government logistics hub in Belgium will rely on delivery firm DHL to transport some key goods across the Channel. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/contract-shipping-nhs-supplies-given-14057910?utm_source=twitter.com&amputm_medium=social&amputm_campaign=sharebar 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Byline Times Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Brexit Report Here are just a few of the KEY warnings from the report Government Departments across the board are NOT on track for a no deal. Customs Admin at ports will affect 240000 UK businesses and cost them 13bn per annum in administrative costs alone the HMRC estimates. There will be shortages of some foods price increases and the food supply industry is altogether unprepared. Northern Ireland will fare worse than the rest of the UK. https://bylinetimes.com/2019/02/26/contempt-threat-by-breakaway-independent-group-mps-forces-cabinet-to-release-13bn-cost-of-no-deal-brexit/ 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Times Her plans for EU citizens in a nodeal Brexit scenario has been criticised by Alberto Costa a loyalist MP who works as a parliamentary private secretary for David Mundell the Scottish secretary. Mr Costa will table a motion to protect the right of three million EU citizens in the UK and one million UK citizens in the event of no deal. Mr Costa who is 47 and was born in Britain to Italian parents has been warned that putting down the government amendment is incompatible with his role but is refusing to resign forcing the government to consider sacking him. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dca0bf12-394b-11e9-ac2f-7ff26270aa53 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Metro.co.uk Leave Means Leave the cross party campaign group for Brexit says it will mount legal action against the government to ensure European Elections are held in the UK on 23 May if Article 50 is extended. The organisation has appointed the city law firm Wedlake Bell as well as counsel from Field Court Chambers to prepare this claim. https://metro.co.uk/2019/02/26/leave-campaign-sue-brexit-delayed-8756518/?ito=article.mweb.share.top.twitter 26th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Cheshire Live The more I hear about what went wrong in that 2016 referendum the less I actually respect the result says Chester MP Chris Matheson as the UK prepares to leave the European Union on March 29. Mr Matheson says if the referendum was a sporting event the Leave campaigns would have been disqualified months ago. https://www.cheshire-live.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/chester-mp-chris-matheson-losing-15884961?utm_source=twitter.com&amputm_medium=social&amputm_campaign=sharebar 25th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Observer A case can be made that the crux of the crisis stems from Mays obsession with freedom of movement. Tories are supposed to believe in freedom but not May. When she inherited the office she had desired for most of her life the prime minister who was apparently concerned that the Tory party was the nasty party wanted to do lots of good socially beneficial things. Instead the nastiness has continued social neglect is all around us and she has been obsessed by opposition to the kind of free movement of labour that all but the most pigheaded Brexiters can see the British economy depends on. For this she was and is prepared to sacrifice membership of the customs union and the single market apparently in an effort to keep the Conservative party together an aim which looks increasingly doomed. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/24/brexit-not-just-eu-alienated-japan-too-nissan-honda-hitachi 24th Feb 2019