1st Mar 2019 https://nfind.uk/brexit_cliff_edge/index.php/newsletter=15 brexit_cliff_edge

Jobs at Risk

Financial Times Aston Martin set aside 30m to deal with a hard Brexit as spiralling costs hit profits at the British luxury carmaker and triggered a sharp fall in its share price on Thursday. The group posted a pretax loss of 68m for last year largely because of 136m in costs from its stock market flotation in October. But even once the exceptional charges were stripped out pretax profit declined by 7 per cent to 68m due in part to a oneoff pension gain that it booked during 2017 and accounting changes last year. https://www.ft.com/content/9b5c3be2-3b3c-11e9-b856-5404d3811663 28th Feb 2019

Jobs at Risk

The Independent RollsRoyce hailed a breakthrough year despite suffering a 2.9bn loss last year partly thanks to technical problems with its engines. Company is axeing 4600 jobs as part of a costcutting drive and has suffered from a series of technical issues with its engines https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/rolls-royce-loss-job-cuts-trent-engine-a8801061.html 28th Feb 2019

Jobs at Risk

Sunderland Echo A Wearside MP says she has finally received a reply to a letter she sent Prime minister Theresa May calling for more clarity over Brexit. But Sharon Hodgson whose Washington and Sunderland West constituency covers the Nissan plant says the reply leaves her questions unanswered. She has now received a reply which Business and Industry Minister Richard Harrington MP sent on February 22 which can be viewed here. Mrs Hodgson said the Minister had been unable to provide any further information regarding what trading arrangements will be when we leave the European Union EU and refused to rule out a hugely damaging NoDeal Brexit. https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/lack-of-detail-over-brexit-is-hugely-concerning-says-sunderland-mp-1-9623257 28th Feb 2019

Jobs at Risk

Teesside Gazette German parent company CropEnergies has now confirmed a decision to bring the Wilton plant back online at a reduced capacity from the beginning of March. Around 90 staff work at the plant near Redcar but it also directly supports around 2000 supply chain workers in areas from farming to haulage. But in a statement the company said Questions related to Brexit regarding customs for imports and exports to and from the United Kingdom need to be clarified immediately. The future customs regulations are of existential importance for the production site at Wilton. Labour MP for Redcar Anna Turley challenged Ministers in Parliament on Thursday to protect the British biofuels industry after Brexit. She warned of a potentially devastating impact of tariffs being removed on biofuel and said as Ensus decision to limit production shows jobs still hang in the balance. https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/ensus-refinery-wilton-resume-production-15901665 28th Feb 2019

Jobs at Risk

Reuters JPMorgan has secured additional office space on the outskirts of Paris to house up to 200 staff who could be billeted to the French capital at short notice under plans to cope with the fallout from a no deal Brexit sources told Reuters. The U.S. investment bank has expanded an existing lease at the temporary base so it can accommodate a swift transfer of crucial operations to the city by April 1 if Britain were to leave the EU without a deal on March 29 the sources familiar with the matter said. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-jpmorgan-paris/jpmorgan-plans-temporary-paris-hub-for-200-staff-if-no-deal-brexit-idUKKCN1QH205 28th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Evening Standard Theresa Mays immigration policy was engulfed in fresh criticism today as figures revealed a slump in EU workers coming to Britain and a surge in arrivals from outside Europe. The Office for National Statistics said that an outflow of Eastern Europeans means that net migration from Europe has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. But at the same time the numbers coming to the UK from the rest of the world has soared to 261000 more than double the Prime Ministers target of cutting net migration to below 100000. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-hit-by-migrant-target-farce-as-record-numbers-of-europeans-leave-uk-a4079276.html 28th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

BBC Net migration to the UK from countries outside the European Union has hit its highest level for 15 years the Office for National Statistics says. Figures show 261000 more nonEU citizens came to the UK than left in the year ending September 2018 the highest since 2004. In contrast net migration from EU countries has continued to fall to a level last seen in 2009. The figures are the last set before the UK is due to leave the EU next month. And separate figures released by the Home Office show the number of EU nationals applying for British citizenship hit an alltime high last year rising by 23 to about 48000. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47400679 28th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Huffington Post Extending the Brexit process will lift uncertainty in Westminster but will do little to reassure businesses and consumers there is light at the end of the tunnel. Both consumers and businesses are paying the Brexit price. This is because in the presence of ongoing economic policy uncertainty the sterling exchange rate takes a hit as foreign investors become less willing to trust and therefore invest in the UK economy. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/extending-article-50_uk_5c77a865e4b010e7c5640f05 28th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Reuters British business confidence slid in February to its lowest level since June 2016 the month of the Brexit vote a survey showed on Thursday adding to other signs that Brexit uncertainty is hurting companies. Business confidence fell by 15 points to 4 percent in February according to the Lloyds Bank Business Barometer. The services sector which accounts for the bulk of British economic output accounted for the biggest fall in morale. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-confidence/uk-business-confidence-slides-to-lowest-since-month-of-brexit-referendum-lloyds-idUKKCN1QH13C 28th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Echo News There are now no options on Air Maltas website to book any flights from Southend to Catania and Cagliari on any date.Travellers believe they are cancelling the flights six weeks before departure date and not giving passengers any options to book them. https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/17466575.air-maltas-italian-routes-pulled-from-southend-airport/?ref=twtrec 28th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Financial Times The net migration of EU nationals to the UK has fallen 70 per cent since the 2016 vote to leave the bloc but arrivals from outside Europe have increased markedly in an indication of Brexits impact on flows of people to the country. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday show the net migration of EU nationals fell to 57000 in the year to September 2018 the lowest level in a decade. This compares with a net inflow of 189000 EU nationals in the year to June 2016 when the Brexit referendum was held. The change is even more stark for those people who come from the eight central and eastern European member states that joined the EU in 2004 countries such as Poland. The number of people from such countries who are leaving the UK now outstrips those arriving. Overall National Insurance number allocations to EU nationals fell by a third to 419000 between 2016 and 2018. https://www.ft.com/content/960b4672-3b3e-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

East Anglian Daily Times Firms are slashing hours and cutting jobs over Brexit fears prompting more people than ever before to turn to foodbanks for help it has been claimed. Frontline volunteers say the uncertainty surrounding Britains EU exit is playing a significant role in why so many people are struggling to put food on the table alongside Universal Credit payment delays. It comes as demand for foodbanks in parts of Suffolk and north Essex soared by as much as 50 yearonyear in February. Stowmarket and area foodbank manager Mike Smith warned local people are really struggling at the moment after sending out 100 emergency food parcels this month up 51 from 66 in 2018. https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/brexit-suffolk-and-north-essex-foodbank-demand-1-5911583 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Computer Business Review The government assesses readiness of traders as one of its most significant risks Six of the eight IT systems deemed most critical for day one after Brexit are at serious risk of not being delivered on time or in an adequate condition. Worrying it said that HMRC had decided last month that a flagship new Customs Declaration Service CDS to handle and riskassess customs declarations and account for payment of duties would not be ready for a nodeal Brexit. But the fallback option the existing Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight CHIEF system is riddled with issues and also may not be ready in time. https://www.cbronline.com/news/customs-declaration-service-nao 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Al Jazeera Hardly a day goes by without a business announcing relocation to the EU or warning of how dangerous Brexit would be for the UK economy. These have included aerospace firm Airbus which employs more than 14000 people in the UK. Electronics multinationals Sony and Panasonic have both moved their European headquarters from the UK to the Netherlands while financial services company JP Morgan announced 4000 of its staff could be moved from London in the event the UK crashes out of the EU. While multinational firms have sufficient capital and resources to plan and pivot just over a month before the UK is due to leave the EU most smaller businesses can only wait and hope. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/eu-reliant-small-british-businesses-preparing-brexit-190226064356993.html 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Financial Times The UK financial regulator confirmed that firms will have a 15month grace period to comply with rule changes in the event of a cliffedge Brexit in 29 days time. The Financial Conduct Authority on Thursday published a series of nearfinal rules around Brexit although they still need approval from the Treasury. They include a waiver for firms around changes that the FCA has had to introduce as a result of the UK leaving the European Union and therefore the blocs rule book. https://www.ft.com/content/e74cffe0-3b7e-11e9-b856-5404d3811663 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Russell Group The Russell Group is calling on the Home Secretary and Immigration Minister to scrap plans for a 36month visa for EU nationals coming to the UK in the event of a No Deal Brexit. The European Temporary Leave to Remain ETLR scheme would discriminate against Scottish universities and any future EU students wanting to study engineering and medicine courses which last more than three years. https://russellgroup.ac.uk/news/scrap-plans-for-no-deal-visas/ 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian Chris Smith the festivals director said it was getting harder each year to get people to perform. It is harder to book artists because of Brexit We are struggling to overcome it and let artists know they are welcome here and that people still want to experience their great music he said. Lots of artists are finding they can get to Europe but fear taking the next step to the UK particularly if there is there is no passport union. It will become more complicated. When we are out of the EU the passport arrangements will change so artists coming from wherever will get into Europe but worry they then wont be able to cross the Channel. While he noted their concerns may be unfounded because it was too early for artists to make official visa applications he said there was a feeling this year of people asking Can we be bothered Is this a process we want to put ourselves through https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2019/feb/28/womad-uk-festival-artists-performers-brexit-visas 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Financial Times After almost grinding to a complete halt in January annual house price growth remained subdued in February Robert Gardner Nationwides chief economist said. Indicators of housing market activity such as the number of property transactions and the number of mortgages approved for house purchase have remained broadly stable in recent months but survey data suggests that sentiment has softened. He added that measures of consumer confidence weakened around the turn of the year and surveyors reported a further fall in new buyer enquiries over the same period. https://www.ft.com/content/4144c334-3b25-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian I have never been here before. I dont mean Ive never looked at the ranks of government with such distaste and despair because there was no way of knowing 10 years ago that things would get this much worse. No I mean Ive never felt the public realm bleed so relentlessly into my personal life that Im drenched in unknowables and cant make any decisions at all. All questions end Wait and see what happens in March I guess. Do we move house is merely the headline uncertainty that probably only affects a few. Where do you go on holiday when you dont know whats going to happen to the pound This stuff matters https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/28/brexit-uncertainty-ruining-personal-lives-cant-make-decisions 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Sunderland Echo Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage is to lead a nationwide Brexit march to London through both Sunderland and Hartlepool. The Leave Means Leave protest which begins on Wearside on Saturday March 16 will end in the capital on Friday March 29 to mark the planned day the United Kingdom leaves the European Union. https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/former-ukip-leader-nigel-farage-to-lead-nationwide-brexit-march-through-sunderland-and-hartlepool-1-9622788 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Doncaster Free Press As much as we like to think it will never happen getting injured when abroad is commonplace but how many Brits know what action to take should the unthinkable happen when on their travels Paul McClorry Head of Travel Litigation at specialist injury lawyers Hudgell Solicitors has given his advice on what to do if you are injured on holiday and how this might change once Britain leaves the EU https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/lifestyle/travel/what-to-do-if-you-get-injured-on-holiday-and-how-this-might-change-after-brexit-1-9623164 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

iNews Some farmers have absolutely no regrets about losing their EU subsidies after voting Vote Leave and say they would do so with even more gusto this time https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-farmers-vote-leave-eu-referendum/ 28th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Express.co.uk With the March 29 Brexit day fast approaching and Theresa May still attempting to convince Parliament to back her deal a delay to Britains departure is looking increasingly likely. But a lack of clarity over future trading arrangements means 514 million worth of British grain exports are at risk as farmers struggle to plan ahead. NFU combinable crops board chairman Tom Bradshaw said a divorce deal is needed to allow trading contracts to be put in place with European buyers https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1094015/brexit-news-uk-farmers-national-farmers-union-nfu-no-deal-brexit-latest 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Times Advocates of a second referendum have a new plan to push for a ratification referendum meaning a public vote after Theresa Mays deal goes through. This would still require lots of Labour MPs to support a Tory Brexit something the party seems set against. Some believe that the threat of a delay to Brexit also means it is more likely that Brexiteers vote for Mrs Mays deal. However huge obstacles remain to a second vote. Ultimately it is very hard to push through a referendum unless the government agrees. Some MPs backing a second referendum hope that the binding nature of the forthcoming vote could make it impossible for the government to ignore. However it requires parliamentary time and government money to set up as well as an extension to Article 50. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/huge-obstacles-remain-to-a-second-brexit-referendum-bsfjn8b7n 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC The man who is arguably the most powerful force in the land at the moment was a stranger to many in Westminster until last summer. Geoffrey Cox a more familiar face at the Bar until his appointment as attorney general in July now holds the fate of Theresa May in his hands. There are signs that Brexiteer Tories and the DUP may be able to accept the key change Cox is seeking a legally binding time limit to the Northern Ireland backstop. The backstop is designed to avoid a hard border by tying Northern Ireland closely to the rules of the EU if the UK and Brussels fail to negotiate a future relationship by the end of a planned transition period. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47409659 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Express.co.uk The DUPs Westminster spokesman Sammy Wilson admitted they could back the Prime Ministers deal if the EU agreed a time limit to the Northern Ireland backstop. Mr Wilson said We have 21 months before the implementation period would be finished anyway. We believe there are possibilities to have the monitoring of trade across the border solved in that time. Thats the kind of time limit we would be looking for. It comes after Jacob ReesMogg who chairs the powerful European Research Group ERG of proBrexit Tory MPs softened his stance for legal guarantees limiting the Northern Ireland backstop. Mr ReesMogg suggested he could support Mrs Mays deal if binding legal assurances were added to an appendix to the Withdrawal Agreement rather than put in the treaty itself. https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1093629/brexit-news-latest-EU-deal-vote-today-no-deal-referendum-live-update 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

ITV News Can the prime minister dare to dream that her Brexit deal will pass perhaps as soon as next week It is striking how Brexiters from the ERG group are lining up to tell me how reasonable they are trying to be. After well over a hundred Tory MPs failed to vote for Yvette Coopers amendment on Wednesday evening which simply captured the PMs uturn pledge to allow MPs to delay Brexit one senior Tory texted me to insist this was more cock up than conspiracy. https://www.itv.com/news/2019-02-28/why-the-pm-can-dare-to-dream-that-her-brexit-deal-will-pass/ 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Sun Brexiteer Tory MPs have told Theresa May they can deliver a majority for her EU deal if she lays out a timetable to leave No10 this year. The Sun has been told that dozens of sceptical backbenchers are now ready to hold their noses and vote for the PMs revised divorce agreement even if she can only win small tweaks to it so long as she names the day shell go https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8535274/brexiteer-tories-call-may-quit/ 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Express.co.uk The nationwide event will see marches begin in North East England on March 16 and culminate with a mass rally in London on March 29 the day Theresa May had pledged Britain would quit the EU. Organised by proBrexit pressure group Leave Means Leave the protest aims to show the level of popular dissatisfaction with how the divorce from Brussels is being handled. Brexiteer Nigel Farage who serves as an MEP for South East England said The Westminster elite are in the process of betraying the British people over Brexit. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1093922/brexit-news-leave-means-leave-march-nigel-farage-sunderland-london-brexit-betrayal 1st Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

Daily Mirror Less than a month before we leave the EU theres a question on a lot of peoples lips can Brexit be stopped The short answer is yes. It takes only a crucial few decisions to unchisel the March 29 exit date in stone. But the long answer is its complicated the Daily Mirror explains the options https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/can-brexit-stopped-how-leaving-14069362 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Channel 4 News The UK staying in the customs union could have been avoided if shes made concessions elsewhere. She could have accepted Brussels offer to allow Northern Ireland to stay part of the EU customs union if no agreement was reached. Mrs May dismissed this option as unacceptable because in her view it would amount to breaking up the UK. No doubt the staunch opposition from her parliamentary lifeline the DUP also weighed on her mind as she considered that proposal. https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-theresa-mays-biggest-brexit-u-turns 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian Brussels is to insist that any Brexit delay is a oneoff according to senior EU diplomats setting the stage for Theresa May to present MPs with the choice of her deal or a chaotic nodeal exit this summer. The prime minister has suggested that she will seek a twomonth extension if MPs vote down her deal again in midMarch to allow further time for negotiations. But EU27 heads of state and government are said by senior sources to hate the idea of the UK then asking for a further delay when the initial extension proves to be insufficient for renegotiations. Key member states are understood to be planning to put pressure on the European council president Donald Tusk to rule out a second extension in writing. Some member states will insist on that being on paper said one diplomat. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/28/extension-article-50-must-be-one-off-brussels-eu27-uk-brexit-delay 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Financial Times For Donald Tusk the president of the European Council of EU states delaying Brexit is the rational choice for the UK. Given UK prime minister Theresa Mays difficulties in Westminster European officials almost universally concur that Britain needs to postpone its March 29 exit date from the EU. But beyond that there is little EU consensus. Senior diplomats are discussing delays ranging from two to 21 months. Some offici als have even questioned whether a deadline need be set at all. The final word will come from EU leaders who must unanimously agree to any UK request to extend the formal Article 50 divorce process. Their minds are far from made up. https://www.ft.com/content/dea1fca8-3915-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0?segmentId=0052c4bc-c54e-19c6-b165-8800c56b8254&ampcampaign=brexit 27th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Scotsman Theresa Mays unpopularity and the difference between the emerging reality of Brexit and the Leave campaigns rhetoric would help Remain triumph in a second vote writes Kenny MacAskill. Theresa May continues to play with fire running the clock down trying to deliver her Brexit deal. Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn still vacillates but at least has been progressed to supporting a second referendum. Whether itll come about still isnt clear but itll only happen if MPs hold their nerve and exert their authority. But another vote is looking like the only way out of the morass and whats more Remain will win. Its not just that leading pollsters have been saying that Remain has had a narrow lead in the polls for a while now but more importantly the wider circumstances in which it would be held. https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brexit-why-remain-would-win-second-referendum-kenny-macaskill-1-4880547 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC The Irish minister for finance has told the Dil there will be 400 extra customs staff recruited before the end of the March. The hiring of some 200 more would follow soon after minister Paschal Donohoe told the Irish parliament. These workers will be required to deal with a new customs systems resulting from Brexit. The minister insisted that the new staff will not be placed at or near the border with Northern Ireland. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47406499 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Politics Home Labour and the Conservatives gearing up for a fresh clash over Brexit in Wales. The two parties will duke it out in the Newport West byelection set for 4 April just days after the UK is due to leave the EU. The seat was vacated by Labour veteran Paul Flynn after he died aged 84 last month. The seat has been held by Labour since 1987 when Flynn snatched it from Conservative Mark Robinson who served as a junior minister under Margaret Thatcher. The majorities secured by Flynn in the eight elections he fought ranged from 2708 in his first victory and 14357 in the Blair surge of 1997. His majority at the 2017 snap election was 5658 so not a wildly safe bet when the political climate is so volatile. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/analysis/102182/analysis-brexit-set-dominate-newport-west 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian Amendment proposed by backbenchers would see party abstain on PMs deal in return for second referendum. Those involved in talks said the Labour leadership was in favour of a redrafted amendment proposed by backbenchers Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson which would see the party abstain on the Brexit deal if a second referendum were promised on those terms. Labour is moving towards a compromise plan that would allow Theresa Mays Brexit deal to pass but make clear that parliament withholds support until it has been put to a public vote according to multiple party sources. Kyle said he was now confident the Labour leadership would back his rewritten amendment along with a number of Conservative MPs meaning there was an increasing prospect it would succeed. I have every reason to believe https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/28/labour-moving-towards-plan-to-let-mays-brexit-deal-pass-if-it-faces-public-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&amputm_medium=twitter 28th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

New Statesman Undermining existing rights to free movement undermines the rights of the whole working class. Labour must offer a vision of an open democratic egalitarian Britain. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/02/labour-must-make-principled-case-free-movement 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Yahoo! https://uk.news.yahoo.com/george-eustice-minister-resigns-over-possible-brexit-delay-144900479.html 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47405261 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Politico https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-farming-and-fisheries-minister-quits-over-brexit-delay/ 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent A government minister has quit his job protesting that Theresa May has risked the UKs final humiliation by opening the door to delaying Brexit. George Eustice resigned as farming and fisheries minister warning Developments this week will lead to a sequence of events culminating in the EU dictating the terms of any extension requested and the final humiliation of our country. In a letter Mr Eustice a supporter of the prime ministers stalled deal attacked her for preparing the ground for taking a nodeal Brexit off the table. If the position of parliament is now that we will refuse to leave without an agreement then we are somewhat stuck he wrote. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-eustice-resigns-brexit-theresa-may-delay-article-50-a8801561.html 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent Theresa May faced fresh pressure over her Brexit strategy after farming minister George Eustice resigned from government to oppose any delay to Britains exit day next month. Mr Eustice said he had backed the prime minister through a series of rather undignified retreats but he was afraid that the prospect of a vote on extending article 50 would lead to the final humiliation of our country. His resignation came after MPs overwhelmingly voted to lock in the prime ministers promise to give parliament a veto over a nodeal Brexit while Ms May opened the door to a limited delay to Brexit. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-live-no-deal-theresa-may-vote-second-referendum-a8800856.html 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Telegraph Theresa Mays credibility suffered a fresh blow as another minister quit over her Brexit plans and was immediately praised by Boris Johnson for being brave and right. George Eustice a longserving agriculture minister resigned in protest at Mrs Mays decision this week to give MPs the chance to delay Brexit. He has quit amid fevered speculation in Westminster that the Prime Minister is planning to force MPs to vote on her Brexit deal on Wednesday next week. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/28/george-eustice-praised-brave-right-boris-johnson-quitting-government/ 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Nature Currently the United Kingdom gets back from the EU science budget between 500 million US666 million and 1 billion a year more than we put in. Beyond any Brexit transition period there is absolutely no guarantee from the Treasury that they will replace that funding. That means that UK research will lose up to 1 billion a year after Brexit. Over the past year Ive repeatedly asked ministers Where is that money coming from They have no answer so the United Kingdom is almost guaranteed to lose that money. In the long term the government needs to find another billion and that has to come from another departments budget. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00694-w 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Politico French President Emmanuel Macron said the EU would only grant the U.K. an extension to the Brexit negotiations if there is a clear reason for doing so as he took a stronger line than German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The time has come for the British to make choices Macron said on Wednesday at a joint press conference with Merkel. We could examine a request for an extension if it is justified by new choices by the British. But under no circumstances would we accept an extension without a clear perspective on the objective pursued. https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-we-need-a-clear-reason-to-grant-brexit-extension/ 27th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Times Despite the fact it has necessitated the end of my role in government I have been delighted with the tremendous crossparty support my amendment has received over the past week. From prominent Brexiteers within my own party to Remain advocates in the opposition my amendment has clearly chimed with the overall mood of the House. A mood that would seem to suggest that while border and backstop discussions continue the matter of citizens rights is something of a unifying force. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c8a55ce6-3ad8-11e9-a664-d81d3e2c8975 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Prospect Magazine We have to stop pretending everything is as it was. Brexit represents a unique rupture and the old ways of thinking no longer work. Brexit represents a unique rupture and we must adapt our political rituals and approaches to accommodate it. We no longer live in an innocent age where familiar problems result in familiar consequences. These times are as dangerous as we have ever known and we need to start acting like it. https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/it-is-not-normal-that-oblivion-remains-on-the-governments-policy-agenda 28th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The London Economic Barrister Jessica Simor took Mays government to court for proceeding with Brexit on the basis that the referendum was lawful despite their full knowledge of the illegal behaviour of the campaign to leave the EU. Based on the Electoral Commissions rulings of last minute overspending by Vote Leave on a highly targeted Facebook campaign Brits affected by Brexit living in Europe launched a legal case arguing the referendum result should not stand. But last week the Court of Appeal denied the ex pats and Jessica Simor representing them permission to appeal. She appeared on James OBriens LBC show to explain the appalling contradictions of the case. https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/watch-lawyer-explain-brexit-vote-would-be-void-for-corruption-if-only-it-was-binding/26/02/ 26th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

Express.co.uk Speaking to Euronews the Tory member of the European Parliament claimed he could not support any Brexit that would be detrimental to the British economy. He argued he was not elected on a Brexit manifesto and did not support Britons decision to leave the Brussels bloc. He said I obviously cant quibble with the views of the Prime Minister in what she considers to be her duty. My duty is to look after the UK economy. I wasnt elected on any Brexit manifesto and I happened to believe that Brexit particularly the hard Brexit which she has chosen in her Political Declaration out of the single market and the customs union and a no deal Brexit which would be even worse is very damaging to the British economy. It will not deliver frictionless trade and the Governments own research suggests a nine percent hit on the British economy if there is no deal. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1093998/Brexit-news-update-Theresa-May-hard-Brexit-EU-UK-no-deal-Charles-Tannock-MEP 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC One of Scotlands richest men has accused politicians of letting down the country as he called for another referendum to be held on Brexit. Sir Tom Hunter said voters had been lied to by the Leave campaign during the EU referendum in 2016. They had therefore made their decision without knowing the facts about what Brexit would mean he added. The entrepreneur also said he believed there should be another referendum on independence but not now. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47392422 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Financial Times Scotlands biggest fishing lobby says Brexit and the end of EU influence over UK waters will create a sea of opportunity for the industry. But that is not how it looks to many fishermen plying their trade among the estuaries and islands of Scotlands inshore waters. Its only a sea of opportunity for a few. Its not a sea of opportunity for the west coast inshore fleet said Kenneth MacNab chairman of the Clyde Fishermens Association whose family has fished for generations in the waters off Tarbert in Argyll and Bute. https://www.ft.com/content/4ffe9624-2951-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Politics.co.uk Farce number one. Last Thursday the Court of Appeal heard the final attempt by the UK in the EU group to have Theresa Mays decision to trigger Article 50 declared invalid on the basis that Vote Leave had broken electoral law and been given the maximum fine by Electoral Commission. The court rejected their appeal on the grounds that while illegalities did take place the referendum of 2016 was advisory only so the result could not be voided by the courts. Its quite remarkable. Precisely because the referendum was not binding May was free to cite the will of the people and plough on ahead. http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/02/28/through-the-looking-glass-the-latest-topsy-turvy-logic-of-br 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Spectator.co.uk Three ministers cowrote an article in Tuesdays Daily Mail over the undead body of Paul Dacre in this sense. They would never have dared to do so unless they had been sure that they would go unpunished by the government. If you follow the sequence of how a variety of ministers emerged on this subject you will see orchestration. Mrs Mays spin doctor Robbie Gibb exBBC briefs programmes like Newsnight all the time the official line was to say how troubling the behaviour of the ministers was. But you do not get three ministers to coauthor an attack on stated government policy without government acquiescence. https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/corbyns-handling-of-brexit-has-been-magnificently-opportunistic/ 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Shetland News Every Scottish Government department every local authority and every business in every part of the land is spending money preparing for a nodeal because the consequences of a nodeal will be so catastrophic. Thats money that we all actually hope will be entirely wasted. The chief economic advisor to Scotland reported last week that a nodeal Brexit has the potential to push the Scottish economy into recession with unemployment rising and trade and investment disrupted. If prolonged the shock of Scotlands departure from the EU could lead to significant structural change in the economy with national Gross Domestic Product GDP predicted to fall by up to seven per cent. Shetland could be one of hardest hit places in Scotland. The report notes that over 25 per cent of the workforce here face economic damage from a nodeal Brexit. https://www.shetnews.co.uk/2019/02/28/viewpoint-brexit-we-didnt-vote-for-this/ 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Daily Mirror Tory Trade Secretary Liam Fox blew more than 100000 on a podcast vanity project listened to by just 8398 people. The online radio series has been branded a complete waste of money which should have been spent on public services. Local to Global part of the Governments Exporting is Great campaign was recorded a bid to encourage British firms to export their wares. Its a series of interviews by former Apprentice cohost Nick Hewer speaking to British entrepreneurs to discover the personal stories and memorable moments that inspired them to start exporting. But the government has revealed there have been just 8398 downloads or listens in total across the 6 episodes of the podcast plus a 1 minute preview episode. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liam-fox-blows-100000-vanity-14069762 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent ...And its also why I will be joining the hundreds of thousands of protestors on Saturday 23 March calling upon our politicians to put it to the electorate. Young people from around the country should join me in demanding again a Final Say on the Brexit deal. Apparently 700000 frustrated protestors wasnt enough. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-second-referendum-young-voters-corbyn-may-a8801511.html 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Devon Live Ben Bradshaw MP says there is a moral as well as a practical argument for going back to the public for a legallybinding vote to ask people is this Brexit deal what you really want https://www.devonlive.com/news/news-opinion/mays-deal-far-removed-brexit-2592755 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The New European AntiBrexit campaigners have said that the prime minister is playing political games with public money by spending money on nodeal Brexit television adverts. Sir Mark Sedwill head of the civil service announced before the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Select Committee that the adverts would help individuals and citizens and businesses to make their own judgements. The move comes as part of the governments communication campaign which has already seen advertisements on the radio and online. Jo Stevens MP a Best For Britain supporter and MP for Cardiff Central responded Not content with wasting 50000 of taxpayers money last year to promote the governments failed Brexit deal via online advertising it seems the powers that be now plan to spend even more public funds on TV ads to scare the public about a nodeal scenario. https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/government-no-deal-brexit-adverts-for-tv-1-5911427 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian The surprise hero was an unknown Tory MP Alberto Costa who rode to the rescue of EU citizens living here and Brits living abroad together numbering at least 5 million. Their rights will be assured in any kind of Brexit. All this time May has resisted giving security to people whose lives are deeply invisibly indivisibly interwoven into the fabric of British life. Her hostile environment has terrified families some of whom have departed already unwelcome under her chill xenophobic glare. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/28/alberto-costa-eu-citizens-uk-brexit-windrush-home-office?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The New European Mays dismal achievement has been to shut Britain in a room without adults. Within a month or more probably four months we could be facing a recession as more than 40 years of legal and trade relations disappear food shortages as perishable imports are left at the docks and a health crisis as a nodeal Brexit has an immediate and drastic effect on supply chains for medicines vaccines medical devices and equipment as the Lancet put it. Not even the greatest project fearmonger predicted in 2016 that four weeks from our departure the British prime minister would be playing Russian roulette with the countrys future spinning the chamber and clicking the trigger until she gets her way. https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/theresa-may-damning-verdicting-by-nich-cohen-1-5910468 28th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

iNews The Conservatives received almost 250000 in donations last year from the wife of a former minister in Vladimir Putins government new figures revealed. Lubov Chernukhin whose exdeputy finance minister husband Vladimir fell out with the Kremlin is among the most generous donors to Tory coffers. She handed over 146750 in November and December in addition to 100000 earlier in the year. The party also accepted 150000 from Ann Said whose Syrinaborn husband Wafic is a former broker of arms deals with links to Bashar alAssads regime. https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/who-funds-conservative-party-donor-russia-vladimir-putin-link/ 27th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Times Lord Barker of Battle the former energy minister has taken a leave of absence from the House of Lords to run an aluminium and energy group owned by Oleg Deripaska the Russian oligarch with revenues of 12 billion. En appointed Lord Barker 52 as executive chairman this month for a threeyear term after the United States said it would lift sanctions on the company. The former Conservative MP told the Lords of his plans to hang up his robes on February 11 and has not voted since. He will keep his title during his absence but will not be able to attend the House vote or claim expenses. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lord-barker-of-battle-quits-lords-to-run-oleg-deripaska-s-energy-group-en-n3k52cg78 25th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Spectator Here in Australia this story just doesnt fit with the Britain that we know. A disorderly Brexit would mean at most a few months of inconvenience. Perhaps some modest transition costs. But these difficulties would quickly pass. By far the more serious threat comes from Britain caving in and agreeing to a bad deal that imposes most of the burdens of EU membership but with few of the benefits. Or almost as bad a Brexit delay that would keep the UK as a tethered goat while the EU shows how it will humiliate any country with the temerity to leave. For Britain to lose its nerve now would represent failure on an epic scale. https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/no-deal-no-problem/ 2nd Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Irish Times 2nd Brexit vote will destroy trust left in British politics Spiked writer Ella Whelan writes an Irish Times paid for advocacy hit piece. A repeat vote reinforces sense of insignificance in dejected electorate she claims for an unknown funder https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/a-second-brexit-vote-will-destroy-what-little-trust-is-left-in-british-politics-1.3808610 28th Feb 2019

Trade Deals/Negotiations

Time Magazine Britain struck a trade deal Wednesday for a postBrexit world obtaining approval from other World Trade Organization members to stay part of a competitive market for lucrative government contracts after the country leaves the European Union. The agreement allows Britain to retain its place among the 47 WTO countries that are involved in the Government Procurement Agreement. The EUs 28 member nations belong as a single entity so the bidding agreements participating countries signed off on allowing Britain to join as an independent party to the pact. http://time.com/5540240/uk-wto-post-brexit-deal/ 28th Feb 2019