2nd May 2019 https://nfind.uk/brexit_cliff_edge/index.php/newsletter=57 brexit_cliff_edge

Economic Impact

The Guardian Fears over the threat of a disorderly Brexit lost UK companies new orders from international clients last month as factory exports plunged according to a survey. UK manufacturers exports declined at the secondfastest rate in four and a half years in April amid a slowdown in factory output the figures from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply Cips show. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/01/uk-factory-exports-tumble-as-brexit-chaos-takes-toll?CMP=share_btn_tw 1st May 2019

Economic Impact

Financial Times Investment funds based in the UK haemorrhaged 30bn in the 12 months to the end of March as Brexit uncertainty prompted investors to spurn UK assets and shift money to EUregulated products. The UK came close to leaving the EU without a formal agreement on March 29. Although this possibility was ultimately precluded by an extension to the exit date news of the delay came at the last minute. New research by Morningstar a data provider shows that funds domiciled in the UK were hit hard by the Brexit unease losing 5bn in assets in March and 30bn in total over a 12year period. Bhavik Parekh associate analyst for manager research at Morningstar said In the months leading to the deadline investors and fund managers became increasingly worried over the impact of an unfavourable deal and its negative implications. The outflows were partly driven by investors culling their exposure to asset classes vulnerable to Brexit shocks such as UK companies. UK equity income funds a longstanding investor favourite bled 3.1bn over the year to the end of March. https://www.ft.com/content/831c060c-6b52-11e9-a9a5-351eeaef6d84 2nd May 2019

Economic Impact

ING Think Stockpiling had been the key theme in UK manufacturing over recent months as concerns rose about the possibility of an imminent no deal Brexit. Recent PMI surveys had suggested that firms were building inventory at an unprecedented rate faster in fact than any G7 economy has experienced in the surveys history. But now that Article 50 has been extended and the immediate risk of no deal postponed this stockpiling activity has eased slightly according to the latest survey data. This helped take the manufacturing PMI from 55.1 in March to 53.1 in April. https://think.ing.com/snaps/trouble-ahead-for-uk-manufacturers-as-april-pmi-dips/ 1st May 2019

Economic Impact

Irish Examiner The Irish Farmers Association says Brexit has so far cost beef farmers over 100m. They say price cuts brought on by Brexit have left many on the brink of going out of business. A protest to highlight their concerns is taking place outside a meeting of Cabinet in Cork later. IFA President Joe Healy says beef farmers are suffering and the Government needs to act like they said they would. The minister has adopted a wait and see approach and this government has said that theyd have farmers backs in the case of Brexit well know we want them to back up their words said Mr Healy. We dont have to wait and see. Farmers have endured the pain of Brexit in their pockets where it really hurts. Unless theyre supported theyll go out of business. https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/brexit-has-cost-beef-farmers-over-100m-say-ifa-921215.html#.XMlDQLah1NI.twitter 1st May 2019

Economic Impact

MSN.com UK car manufacturing fell for the tenth month in the row in March as the industry warned that output from the sector could fall to 1980s levels in the event of a nodeal Brexit. The number of cars produced declined to 126195 14.4 lower than in the same period last year according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders SMMT. It reported an 18.1 fall in vehicles produced for domestic use and a 13.4 downturn for overseas the latter blamed on continued weaker demand in key Asian and European markets. But the SMMT added that exports represented nearly fourfifths of overall production demonstrating the importance of free and frictionless trade. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/car-industry-warns-of-return-to-dark-days-as-manufacturing-falls-again/ar-AAAIT1W?ocid=spartandhp 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Evening Standard https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nodeal-brexit-ferry-contracts-to-be-scrapped-at-50m-cost-to-taxpayer-a4131451.html 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/01/chris-grayling-cancels-no-deal-brexit-ferry-contracts-cost-50m/ 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Politics Home https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/transport/maritime-transport/news/103575/chris-graylings-department-cancels-no-deal-brexit 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Sky News https://news.sky.com/story/government-cancels-no-deal-brexit-ferry-contracts-at-a-cost-to-taxpayers-11708377 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Huffington Post UK https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/no-deal-brexit-ferry-contracts-cancelled-at-cost-of-ps50-million_uk_5cc96df5e4b0913d078adece 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC The Department for Transport is cancelling contracts to provide extra ferry services after Brexit. Ending the contracts with Brittany Ferries and DFDS could cost the taxpayer more than 50m. The government bought 89m worth of capacity from the two firms. Some of that capacity might be sold but millions of pounds could be lost. The contracts were designed to ease pressure on the port of Dover by creating extra services at other ports. In February the DfT was forced to axe its 13.8m contract with a third company Seaborne Freight which the BBC found had never sailed a vessel. Earlier this year the National Audit Office estimated that the cancellation costs of all the ferry contracts would be 56.6m. The cost is likely to only be several million pounds less than this. A government spokesperson said The termination of these contracts has resulted in less cost to the taxpayer than the termination costs reported by the NAO. The government was also forced to pay 33m to Eurotunnel to settle a case which challenged the procurement process for the ferry contracts. In addition the DfT is now facing legal action from PO Ferries which says its rival Eurotunnel was given a competitive advantage by the government. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48117366 2nd May 2019

Political Setbacks

The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/01/fiona-onasanya-ousted-parliament-constituents-sparking-by-election/ 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Daily Mirror Disgraced Fiona Onasanya has been booted out as an MP after her constituents voted to force a byelection. The Peterborough MP who ousted Tory Stewart Jackson in 2017 on a majority of just 607 was jailed and expelled from the Labour Party after being convicted of perverting the course of justice. And rare recall petition only the second ever of its kind opened on March 19 giving voters a chance to boot her out. Speaker John Bercow confirmed today that the petition was signed by 10 of her constituents that she was no longer the MP for Peterborough and a byelection would take place in the seat. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-fiona-onasanya-booted-out-14980878 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Politics Home https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/103565/jeremy-corbyn-criticised-endorsing 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/01/jeremy-corbyn-blind-antisemitism-hobson 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Huffington Post UK Jeremy Corbyn has rejected claims that he endorsed antisemitic remarks in an academic textbook on colonialism pointing out the language used was of its time. The Labour leader was plunged into a fresh row over the issue after it emerged that he had praised the study by JA Hobson as a great tome. The book Imperialism A Study included several antisemitic tropes about Jewish control of media and finance. It included a line that claimed Europe was controlled by men of a single and peculiar race who have behind them many centuries of financial experience. The Jewish Labour Movement said the issue was a resignation matter for Corbyn who wrote a foreword to a new edition of the textbook when he was a backbencher in 2011. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-rejects-claims-that-he-endorsed-anti-semitism-in-history-book-on-colonialism_uk_5cc9c34de4b0e4d7572c995e 2nd May 2019

Political Setbacks

Financial Times Thanet hoped to take back control. Four years ago in its last local elections the Kentish district delivered a populist shock by electing the first council run by the UK Independence party. The party that championed Brexit decades before the term was coined won Thanet on an antiestablishment platform including a pledge to reopen Manston Airport a major regional employer renowned for its role in the second world war. It was a high for Ukip and its then leader Nigel Farage. Its victory however soon descended into bickering. In elections on Thursday the selfproclaimed Peoples Army is standing a meagre three candidates for the 56 seats on Thanet District Council. In the districts towns of Ramsgate Broadstairs and Margate the partys local infrastructure has disappeared. Candidates supporters and activists have fled. https://www.ft.com/content/8d960bf0-6b5c-11e9-a9a5-351eeaef6d84 2nd May 2019

Political Setbacks

Sky News The shock decision to sack the defence secretary came after senior ministers demanded a full inquiry into a National Security Council leak. Downing Street sources have pointed out the prime minister spoke of her sadness at her decision to fire Gavin Williamson in her letter setting out the reasons for her decision. But they made clear that having conducted a full inquiry into the leak there could be no other explanation other than the former defence secretary handed over sensitive information to a journalist. Before sitting in the cabinet Mr Williamson was the chief whip making him one of Theresa Mays most trusted senior colleagues. https://news.sky.com/story/gavin-williamson-sacking-personal-blow-for-may-11708931 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian It is symptomatic of the malaise of Brexit that personal ambitions have taken over as the animating impulse in too many cabinet ministers. There appears no depth to which Mr Williamson wouldnt drop to prove that he had metamorphosised into a nationalist rabblerouser. He was shallow responding to Treasury cheeseparing with the idea of mounting guns on tractors as makeshift mobile missile launchers. He showboated suggesting that Gibraltarians could be armed with paintball guns to fire at passing Spanish ships to scare them off. In response it was reported generals simply rolled their eyes. Perhaps nobody else has behaved quite so badly. But this sorry episode reminds the nation that many Conservatives are losing their grip on reality when they ought to be grappling with the most complex piece of statecraft in a generation. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/01/the-guardian-view-on-the-gavin-williamson-sacking-a-man-who-leaked-ambition?CMP=share_btn_tw 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian Labours left was once bitterly denounced for putting purity ahead of power. With Farageism on the brink of winning a national poll and with Labour having already jeopardised the coalition of remainers and leavers it needs to win the same people who once angrily made this argument are themselves most guilty of it. Imagine being a second referendum supporter who is so furious with a party that has twice voted for their objective that youd allow your supposed mortal enemy to win an election and destroy your own cause. Well you dont have to imagine it because in three weeks time that is what will happen. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/01/remainers-own-goal-brexit-nigel-farage-brexit-party-second-referendum-labour 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC Scottish UKIP candidate Mark Meechan was a prominent user of an online forum that contained racist language and threats against ethnic minorities. The forum was closed down by its host USbased gaming community site Discord following inquiries by the BBC. The chat group which was littered with racist and Islamophobic terms as well as support for neoNazi groups was promoted from Mr Meechans Twitter. Mr Meechan said the forum operates on the principle of free speech. The 31yearold YouTube blogger from Coatbridge was convicted last year of posting a video of his girlfriends pug lifting a paw when he said gas the Jews or Sieg Heil. It was described by a sheriff as antiSemitic and racist but Mr Meechan denied he was a racist and said his conviction set a very dangerous precedent for free speech. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48094266 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

The New European A Labour MP who claimed that Labour is not a Remain party has now expressed concerns that it is losing Remainers after a series of member resignations. It had been hoped that the leadership would provide a more positive line on a Peoples Vote as the country heads to the European elections but instead the National Executive Committee endorsed Jeremy Corbyns proBrexit message which appears to keep a public vote option as a last resort. Now Barry Gardiner a member of the Labour frontbench has said he is desperately worried about losing the support of Remainers after many turned to social media to announce their resignations. That is despite recently telling antiBrexit campaigners that Labour is not a Remain party. He was grilled by LBC radio presenter Iain Dale about the rise in resignations since the announcement on its manifesto. https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/barry-gardiner-in-discussion-with-iain-dale-on-brexit-manifesto-1-6027184 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent It was the first line of the spokespersons statement that gave the game away We are working to bring the country together after the chaos and crisis created by the Tories. To translate that into normal English we hope that both Leavers and Remainers will continue to vote for us while the Conservative Party goes into meltdown for its failure to deliver Brexit. So far the MilneCorbyn strategy seems to be working fine. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/corbyn-nec-labour-referendum-final-say-a8893486.html 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

BuzzFeed News Activists have successfully forced Mastercard to hold a vote by shareholders on a proposal which if passed could see the company monitoring payments to global farright political leaders and white supremacist groups. The proposal aims to see Mastercard establish an internal human rights committee that would stop designated white supremacist groups and antiIslam activists such as Tommy Robinson from getting access to money sent from donors using the companys card payment services. Its been conceived by USbased political activists SumOfUs who want to escalate the battle against white supremacists and farright groups from tech platforms like Facebook Google Twitter Patreon and PayPal to one of the biggest companies in world finance in an attempt to choke off donations. Robinson and several other leading figures in the global far right have been forced in recent months to solicit donations directly on their websites via Mastercard Visa and American Express after PayPal banned payments to them. Facebook also disabled the donation function on Robinsons fan page before deleting it completely. https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/mastercard-activists-cut-off-donations-far-right 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC The father of a murdered schoolboy has criticised a top Brexit Party candidate over absolutely disgraceful comments about the Warrington IRA bombing. European elections candidate Claire Fox was a leading member of the farleft Revolutionary Communist Party RCP which defended the fatal attack. Colin Parry whose son Tim died in the 1993 bombing said she should disavow these comments if thats her position. A Brexit Party spokesman said Ms Fox does not hold those views now. Tim Parry 12 and Johnathan Ball three were killed in the IRA bombing on March 20 1993 which left 56 others injured. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-48112981 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Daily Mirror Prime Ministers questions today comes on the eve of the local elections so you can expect both leaders to use the opportunity for a spot of last minute campaigning. Theresa May will dutifully go through the motions of defending her Governments record while refusing to acknowledge her party is facing a hammering in tomorrows poll . The consequences of years of austerity are far more noticeable at a local level than the national one. The cumulative impact of the cuts can be seen in the closure of your local leisure centre the potholes in the roads the rationing of social care the absence of community support officers the state of the local park the flytipping and the loss of your library. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-winning-ground-war-local-14977340 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Express.co.uk Theresa May has been the subject of heavy criticism from members of her party after she agreed to a further extension to the Brexit process to seek support for her proposed withdrawal deal. Commentator Tim Montgomerie claimed the Conservative Party had made a crazy mistake when members maintained the Prime Minister in power despite Mrs May losing the overall majority she had inherited from her predecessor at the 2017 General Election. Addressing the public at a Centre of Independent Studies event in Sydney Mr Montgomerie said If we were here for the rest of the afternoon we could go through listing the major mistakes that Theresa May has made since she became Prime Minister. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1121257/Brexit-news-Conservative-Party-Theresa-May-resign-UK-EU-withdrawal-agreement-latest 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Sky News A Scout leader has quit after children in his troop handed out leaflets for two Conservative candidates in the local elections. The Scout Association said a complaint had been made about youngsters from 1st Marshchapel group in Lincolnshire delivering the information and several volunteers had resigned. The Scouts had been told they could rent an allotment space for a year to grow vegetables for a soup kitchen in return for distributing the leaflets according to reports. The leaflets were promoting Conservative candidates Paul Rickett and Daniel McNally who are campaigning for the East Lindsey District Council elections this Thursday. https://news.sky.com/story/scouts-used-to-deliver-conservative-election-leaflets-in-lincolnshire-11708157 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Daily Mirror Climbing a hilly stone terrace were hailed from the window of a secondfloor by 44 year old Richard Wilson who wants to put up Labour Party poster. In the next street a stones throw from the birthplace of the late poet laureate Ted Hughes Lesley Clemson 52 asks What have the Conservatives done for us We need Labour in power for action on schools and housing. Mum Elspeth Allan 41 comes to the door with toddler Ottilie insisting Its very disheartening whats happened with Brexit but its important to vote Labour. A few doors further up Jordan James 29 an IT manager admits to disillusion over Europe. He said I wasnt sure Ive voted Labour before and I will do again. This is getting like a fanfest. Where are all the unhappy brassedoff Tykes who are going to stay at home tomorrow If they exist they must be hiding from Roisins electoral blandishments. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/election-trail-yorkshire-labour-theresa-14976292 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Daily Mail Theresa May and six female Cabinet members had a night out with the wife of a former Vladimir Putin ally who had donated 135000 at a Tory fundraiser. Lubov Chernukhin was entertained by the Prime Minister at the fivestar Goring Hotel in Belgravia on Monday evening. It is understood the banker won the dinner as an auction prize at the Conservative Partys Black and White ball earlier this year. The 135000 bid takes Mrs Chernukhins donations to the Tories over the past seven years past the 1million mark. The party has insisted that Mrs Chernukhin now a British citizen is not a Putin crony. But the money will raise fresh questions about the Tories links to Russia just a year after the Salisbury spy poisoning. Five years ago David Cameron faced questions after Mrs Chernukhin successfully bid 160000 at a party fundraising dinner to play tennis against him and Boris Johnson. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6976843/Its-Ladies-night-Theresa-Cabinet-rivals-Brexit-feud-one-London-hotel.html 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC Gerard Batten has dismissed Nigel Farages Brexit Party as a Torylite ego trip as he insisted only UKIP has a clear policy for leaving the EU. Launching its European election campaign in Middlesbrough the UKIP leader said democracy was under threat if the Brexit vote was not honoured. UKIP was a real political party with members and a rule book he said. Its rival he said was a wholly owned subsidiary of one mans ego and a safety valve for disaffected Tories. Mr Farage UKIPs figurehead for two decades quit the party after a bitter fallout with Mr Batten last year. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48118829 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

Daily Mirror Stuart Agnew said the UK Muslim population should march against Bruneis sickening antigay law but gave a rather different answer when asked about UK Christians. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bbc-spots-problem-ukip-mans-14977391 1st May 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian Nearly 8 million people in Britain eligible to vote in the European elections are not yet registered campaigners have said as the deadline looms. Research commissioned by Best for Britain the proremain campaign and undertaken by Number Cruncher Politics suggests 7.9 million eligible voters are not on the electoral roll in their local area. The figure is based on population and nationality data estimates of what proportion of the population is registered to vote in each region and research from the Electoral Commission on the accuracy of the electoral register. The Green party MP Caroline Lucas said Its really concerning that huge swathes of people across the country who have the right to vote in the European elections this May arent currently registered. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/01/eight-million-eligible-uk-voters-not-registered-ahead-of-european-elections-study-finds 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-01/u-k-s-may-fires-defence-secretary-williamson-over-huawei-leak 2nd May 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC Gavin Williamson has been sacked as defence secretary following an inquiry into a leak from a toplevel National Security Council meeting. Downing Street said the PM had lost confidence in his ability to serve and Penny Mordaunt will take on the role. The inquiry followed reports over a plan to allow Huawei limited access to help build the UKs new 5G network. Mr Williamson who has been defence secretary since 2017 strenuously denies leaking the information. In a meeting with Mr Williamson on Wednesday evening Theresa May told him she had information that provided compelling evidence that he was responsible for the unauthorised disclosure. In a letter confirming his dismissal she said No other credible version of events to explain this leak has been identified. Responding in a letter to the PM Mr Williamson said he was confident that a thorough and formal inquiry would have vindicated his position. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48126974 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

@Tom_Watson If he has leaked from the National Security Council Gavin Williamson should be prosecuted under the Official Secrets Act. And he should forgo his ministerial severance pay. https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1123637066292760576 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48126677 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Independent Introducing the motion on Wednesday Mr Corbyn called on MPs to recognise the devastating impact that volatile and extreme weather will have on all walks of life as he urged them to declare an environment and climate emergency. We have no time to waste he added. We are living in a climate crisis that will spiral dangerously out of control unless we take rapid and dramatic action now. This is no longer about a distant future. We are talking about nothing less than the irreversible destruction of the environment within our lifetimes. During the debate on the motion environment secretary Michael Gove who met with climate activists at Westminster on Tuesday also said the government recognises the situation we face is an emergency but stopped short of meeting Labours demands to officially declare one. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/climate-change-environment-emergency-commons-motion-mps-vote-latest-a8895456.html 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

Bloomberg Theresa May and her arch political rival Jeremy Corbyn are both signaling they may be edging closer to a Brexit deal after a month of talks between their teams that seemed to be going nowhere. Both the U.K. government and the main opposition Labour Party talked up the prospects for a compromise plan and will hold more negotiations in the days ahead. The prime minister is aiming to wrap up the talks next week either with an agreement or without one. On Wednesday May signaled she could move on one of her key red lines and allow the U.K. to sign up to some kind of permanent customs union with the EU. The pound strengthened. There is a greater commonality in terms of some of the benefits of a customs union that weve already identified between ourselves and the official opposition May told a parliamentary committee. Looking at the balance of these issues is part of the discussion. Can we come to an agreement on that I hope we will be able to. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-01/are-theresa-may-and-jeremy-corbyn-about-to-agree-a-brexit-deal?cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit&amputm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amputm_medium=social&amputm_content=brexit&amputm_source=twitter 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

Evening Standard Rebecca LongBailey made clear however that Mrs May will have to make a decisive shift towards Labours policy for a customs union. I think pragmatically that they potentially may have no option in order to be able to push this deal through she told BBC Radio 4s Today programme. A Tory source said the key question was whether Mr Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell are willing to dip their hands in the blood of Brexit and risk a split with proEU colleagues such as shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer and deputy leader Tom Watson. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-customs-union-the-only-option-left-for-theresa-may-says-corbyn-ally-a4131221.html 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Sun Tory party chiefs are to delay Theresa Mays showdown reckoning with furious members to allow her to host Donald Trump. An unprecedented Emergency General Meeting is due to be called in early June amid a grassroots activists revolt over Brexit. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8975686/theresa-may-tory-showdown-delayed-donald-trump-state-visit/ 2nd May 2019

Political Shenanigans

Financial Times When Scotland voted to maintain the union with England the argument that separation would diminish both nations seemed compelling. Five years on Nicola Sturgeon says Brexit has broken the bargain. Scotlands first minister and leader of the Scottish National party is preparing for a possible second referendum by mid2021. Ms Sturgeon may be a touch impatient. She is also essentially right. Leaving the EU unpicks the logic of Scotlands place in the UK. The independence vote in September 2014 saw 55 per cent support the union and 45 per cent opt for independence. The decision was clear and yet still close enough to represent a reprieve rather than an unequivocal commitment to the status quo. The unspoken message was that the cloak of Britishness thrown over England Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland could not be taken for granted. https://www.ft.com/content/a05dd0ce-6c10-11e9-80c7-60ee53e6681d 2nd May 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Independent Next year ringed in the calendar by the Labour leader and shadow chancellor as the likely date of the next election might then mark the beginning of the end of Corbynism. People are starting to think about life after Jeremy said one Corbyn loyalist. It is a process that will gather pace now that Labours national executive committee NEC has rejected grassroots calls for the party to support a Final Say referendum on any Brexit deal. Corbyn now risks alienating the very members who ensured his 2015 victory. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-labour-nec-second-referendum-brexiteer-remain-a8894441.html 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian A third of the councils seats are up for grabs on 2 May. There are currently only Conservative and Labour councillors in Plymouth 26 and 31 respectively meaning the Tories would need to gain three seats to steal Labours majority. Neither party thinks that is likely to happen. I think it will be tough says the councils Conservative group leader Ian Bowyer. There are no two ways about that. Plymouth voted to leave the European Union by 60 to 40 and Bowyer is open about the fact that the Brexit stalemate in Westminster has damaged his partys chances. Without the raging Brexit arguments and the lack of performance that people see in Westminster I think we would have had a better chance he says. Mercer puts it rather more strongly. I think the electorate are in no mood to vote Conservative he says. Because we have signally failed to deliver our primary policy. The prime minister has said for two and a half years that if we dont get a good deal we will be leaving anyway. I and thousands of others believed her and it was not the case. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/01/plymouth-politicians-dont-mention-brexit-anti-politics-local-elections?CMP=share_btn_tw 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

Left Foot Forward Take Lara McNeill the NEC representative for Young Labour in a blog post yesterday posted just after she had retweeted a meme which claimed that the Communications Unions rejection of a second referendum was quality socialism how exactly she made claimed that it is clear that the electorates desire to honour the 2016 referendum result is hardening rather than dissipating. In fact the number of those who thought the UK was wrong to vote to leave rather than right at close to an all time high. Remain now has a consistent lead in the polls with the lead among those who think the decision to leave the EU being wrong having grown to as much as eight points in recent months. And the overwhelming majority of young Labour members voters and activists backing a fresh referendum. Yet McNeill supplies no positive evidence for her claim. Its not what the statistics say and not what I hear from local party Momentum and activist meetings. She also claims that it is the role of the NEC to decide which parts of established policy to include in the manifesto not turn existing policy on its head. Fine but a public vote on any deal was voted for by Jeremy Corbyn and the vast majority of the front bench on April 1st. Were they making up policy then https://leftfootforward.org/2019/04/dear-corbyn-if-you-fail-to-challenge-brexit-you-will-throw-away-your-support/ 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

@BethRigby The PMs letter firing Gavin Williamson https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1123632523966337024 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

Financial Times Theresa May is considering agreeing to keep the UK inside the EUs tariff wall to secure a Brexit deal which would restrict the countrys ability to do trade deals on goods but allow it to strike agreements on services. The move could satisfy the opposition Labour partys demand that Britain stay within the blocs common external tariff. The prime minister has been warned by Conservative chief whip Julian Smith that unless she strikes a deal on a customs union with Labour a second referendum would be a likely outcome prompting ministers to scramble to find a possible compromise. Mrs May insisted to MPs on Wednesday she wanted to maintain an independent trade policy after Brexit but her allies said that this did not necessarily cover all parts of the British economy. You could come up with a solution where you have freedom to do trade deals in some areas but not others said one person close to Mrs May. Downing Street declined to comment. https://www.ft.com/content/c8d0f45a-6c10-11e9-a9a5-351eeaef6d84 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian Cabinet ministers are bitterly divided over whether Brexit talks with Labour should broach the possibility of a customs union with several sceptical that such a deal could even command a majority in parliament or survive hostile backbench amendments. A senior cabinet minister suggested a deal involving a customs union could be backed by as few as 90 Tory MPs and would mean a slew of resignations from the government payroll. It is also likely to be opposed by the SNP the Liberal Democrats and other smaller parties as well as dozens of Labour MPs who would only back a deal if it included a confirmatory referendum. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/01/cabinet-ministers-split-over-customs-union-brexit-deal-with-labour?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

ITV News I imagine you all know this but I am told it is true that Julian Smith told cabinet that the only way to get the Brexit deal through the Commons is for the Government and Theresa May to agree either to hold a confirmatory ballot or to commit to a customs union. Which sounds to me like the chief whip telling the PM and ministers that the only way to secure Brexit is to ignore dearest preferences of the majority of Tory MPs and get her Brexit ratified by relying on the official opposition. Which would probably destroy the Tory party. And therefore maybe he was in practice saying that there is no Brexit without a General Election presumably with a new Tory leader. Apparently the PM did not make any comment on the chief whips briefing. https://www.itv.com/news/2019-05-01/chief-whip-warned-cabinet-that-referendum-or-customs-union-are-price-of-brexit/ 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

Politics Home In a boost for ongoing crossparty talks the Environment Secretary is said to have told Cabinet colleagues this week that the Conservatives might need to give ground to the opposition to reach an agreement. According to The Telegraph Mr Gove who campaigned for Brexit in 2016 warned that an unpalatable deal with the opposition would be better than the disastrous outcome of Brexit being shelved altogether. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/103566/michael-gove-tells-cabinet-it-would-be-better-have 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Independent Theresa May has admitted she could agree to stay in a customs union in a bid to rescue Brexit saying she cant preempt the result of the talks with Labour. The prime ministers spokesman refused four times to rule out the concession which would enrage many Conservative MPs and almost certainly trigger cabinet resignations. I cant preempt what will come out of talks he said asked if Ms May was prepared to agree to the central demand made by Jeremy Corbyn. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-customs-union-theresa-may-corbyn-labour-trade-eu-a8894546.html 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Telegraph Fast forward a year and a bit and Britain has finally left the European Union even if the nature of its future relationship with Brussels has yet to be settled. Unfortunately another problem has loomed into view. By a comfortable majority Scots have voted for an independent Scotland. A triumphant Nicola Sturgeon stands before Edinburghs St Andrews House seat of the Scottish government to announce that two years hence the more than three centuries old Act of Union with England will be dissolved. Now fast forward to the moment of departure and the Scottish government is finding that like Brexit actually leaving a union of such long standing in a manner that is not going to be economically that straight forward https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/05/01/independent-scotland-now-inevitable-beginning-believe-might/ 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC Theresa May has said she hopes the UK will leave the EU well before the new 31 October Brexit deadline. She told MPs there was no reason the UK could not leave in a matter of weeks once MPs backed an agreement which they have so far rejected three times. She signalled she hoped to get Labour backing for any new customs proposal before putting it to Parliament again. She said their aims were very similar and sometimes people use different terms to mean the same thing. Labour wants the PM to sign up to the idea of a customs union with the EU something she has adamantly opposed up to now and some have suggested she is moving in their direction. Most Conservative MPs have said they would not support the move saying it would mean the UK would not have an independent trade policy. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48124103 1st May 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Northern Echo Four North Labour MPs Mary Creagh Anna Turley Phil Wilson and Catherine McKinnell set out why they believe published opinion is wrong about the regions voters. THERE is no such thing as public opinion said Winston Churchill. There is only published opinion. If you are an MP in the North of England as we are published opinion and Nigel Farage tells you we are surrounded by shouty people who all voted for Brexit whose entire lives are dominated by anger that the elites are betraying them. Published opinion states that we Northern Labour MPs live in constant fear of losing our seats unless we repeat that mantra that Leave Means Leave and if we dont deliver the will of the people we are all heading for the political scrapyard. How dare the media use our constituents to reaffirm Brexit stereotypes of 2016 They were stereotypes then and they still are. Yes we all know Leavers who still want Brexit. But we also know Leavers who now they know what Brexit will mean for their families jobs and incomes have changed their mind. We know people who are adamantly opposed to a Peoples Vote. We know others who were opposed but who now see it as the only democratic way out of the mess we are in. https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/17580613.stop-stereotyping-the-north-as-brexitland-say-four-labour-mps/ 30th Apr 2019