21st Feb 2019 https://nfind.uk/brexit_cliff_edge/index.php/newsletter=8 brexit_cliff_edge

Jobs at Risk

Financial Times We pay them to sit in parliament to make the right decision for the future of the country. It is a shame we cant fire them too said Rob a supplier to the Honda plant as he drove out of the plant digesting Tuesdays news. The BrusselsTokyo deal will allow Japanese carmakers to export into the EU tariff free by 2027 undermining the rationale for the UKs small production base particularly if Britain leaves the bloc without a deal. https://www.ft.com/content/cba667f8-345e-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5 20th Feb 2019

Jobs at Risk

Cornwall Live The number of EU citizens coming to Cornwall to work has plummeted since Britain voted to Leave. Figures from the Department for Work and Pensions show that 2107 European people came from overseas and registered for National Insurance numbers in the year ending September 2018. Thats down from 2382 registrations in the year ending September 2017 and a drop of 24 per cent from 2780 in the year ending in September 2016. The situation in Cornwall mirrors the national picture. Across the UK as a whole there were 619683 National Insurance number registrations from adults coming from Europe in the year ending to September 2018. https://www.cornwalllive.com/brexit-vote-sent-number-eu-2563615 20th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Shropshire Star https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2019/02/21/no-deal-brexit-risks-recession-in-scotland-economic-report-warns/ 21st Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Reuters https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland/no-deal-brexit-may-cut-scottish-gdp-up-to-7-percent-scotlands-chief-economist-idUKKCN1QA00P?feedType=RSS&ampfeedName=businessNews 21st Feb 2019

Economic Impact

iNews A nodeal Brexit could force the Scottish economy into recession this year cut GDP by 7 per cent and lead to a surge in unemployment an official report will warn on Thursday. The value of the pound could also fall by 30 per cent if the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 29 March the document by the Scottish Governments chief economic adviser says. Collectively the above pressures have the potential to push the Scottish economy into recession during 2019 Dr Gary Gillespie Dr Gary Gillespies report which models two possible nodeal scenarios also predicts that disruption to trade could hit Scottish exports by up to 20 per cent. The report warns that business investment in Scotland could fall by 1bn by the end of 2019 with net migration into the country likely to slow significantly and possibly go into reverse. The unemployment rate is also forecast to rise from the current level of 4 per cent to between 5.5 per cent and 8 per cent the equivalent of up to 100000 people being made jobless https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/no-deal-brexit-force-scotland-recession-this-year/ 21st Feb 2019

Economic Impact

The Scotsman North Sea oil risks becoming less attractive to foreign buyers if the UK Government fails to secure key trade deals before Brexit a leading energy business has warned. SK Innovation claimed that Theresa Mays plans risked creating import tariffs which would reduce the attractiveness of North Sea oil for the global market. https://www.scotsman.com/business/companies/energy/brexit-risks-making-north-sea-oil-less-attractive-to-buyers-1-4876213 21st Feb 2019

Economic Impact

The Guardian Anna Leach CBI head of economic intelligence said UK manufacturing activity has moderated at the same time as headwinds from Brexit uncertainty and a weaker global trading environment have grown. The time for Brexit compromise to support the UK manufacturing industry is now. The clock is ticking quickly towards crisis point. It is of critical importance that politicians of all stripes and on both sides of the channel come to agreement on the terms of a Brexit deal as soon as possible to allow our manufacturers to continue to create make and trade their goods with certainty. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/20/cbi-pushing-hard-for-uk-and-eu-to-find-brexit-compromise 21st Feb 2019

Economic Impact

The Argus https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/national/17447624.retailers-in-ireland-and-uk-issue-stark-no-deal-brexit-warning/ 20th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Drapers The leading retail bodies in the UK and Ireland have issued a stark warning on how a nodeal Brexit will affect shoppers. Aodhn Connolly director of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium Thomas Burke director of Retail Ireland and William Bain head of EU and international at the British Retail Consortium have said a nodeal Brexit will squeeze household budgets across Ireland and the UK and lead to reduced availability of some goods. The retail organisations highlighted how increased tariffs and new regulatory checks would lead to increases in the cost of making goods available to consumers as well as the cost implications of nontariff barriers such as checks and delays. https://www.drapersonline.com/news/retailers-sound-no-deal-brexit-warning-bell/7034515.article 21st Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Financial Times Ireland has responded with alarm to UK plans for tariffs and quotas on agrifood imports in a nodeal Brexit as worries grow about the potentially grave impact on the countrys annual 4.5bn food and drink sales to Britain. Leo Varadkars government is facing demands to seek emergency aid from Brussels after Michael Gove UK environment secretary said reports that Britain would operate a zerotariff regime in a nodeal were not accurate. https://www.ft.com/content/758411a6-34f2-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5 20th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Financial Times For financial services in which the UK has a large surplus this is bleak with the Centre for European Reform a thinktank reckoning that a free trade agreement would shrink exports to the EU by almost 60 per cent. This means job losses among the 2.2m people employed in the financial and professional services ecosystem of whom a number live in my constituency of Orpington and an annual 10bn hit to tax revenues according to consultants Oliver Wyman. https://www.ft.com/content/b2aa3eb8-3437-11e9-9be1-7dc6e2dfa65e 20th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

Bloomberg Investors in the pound may be ignoring the here and now by being too fixated on the March 29 exit deadline from the European Union. While they are rushing to buy options that help guard against wide swings in the currency around the departure date they are scarcely prepared for volatility before the end of the first quarter. That means they are at risk of having to pay more for protection later or take a hit on profits should any early political developments fuel outsized sterling fluctuations. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-20/pound-traders-obsessed-with-brexit-date-missing-the-here-and-now 20th Feb 2019

Economic Impact

The Guardian Lloyds Banking Group has shrugged off growing fears over Brexit as it unveiled a 4bn payout to shareholders despite reporting smallerthanexpected annual profits. Britains biggest high street bank which operates one out of five of the countrys branches reported a 24 rise in net profits to 4.4bn for 2018 below the 4.6bn forecast by analysts. Statutory profit before tax was up 13 to 6bn. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/20/lloyds-bullish-over-brexit-as-4bn-payout-to-investors-unveiled-ppi 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Times There has been a surge in the number of companies looking for clearance to trade with Britain after Brexit. Revenue said yesterday that there had been a 300 per cent rise in applications for economic operators registration and identification EORI numbers so far in February compared with last month. There were just under 400 applications in January rising to more than 1600 in February. A spokesman for Revenue said that this was basically just companies being proactive for trading with the UK after Brexit https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/companies-rush-for-brexit-trade-clearance-f3jnm98rk 21st Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

BBC Childrens safety could be put at risk if the UK leaves the EU without proper plans for child protection the UKs four childrens commissioners warn. Child abuse exploitation abduction and how family law matters are dealt with if a child has one parent from the EU are all immediate issues. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47298181 21st Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Independent Britains second largest insurer has announced it will move 9bn worth of assets to Ireland as it prepares for Brexit. Aviva which has more than 14.5 million policyholders has received approval from the High Court in London to transfer 9bn 7.8bn to Dublin. It follows approval earlier this month to move 1bn to the Irish capital. The move which is timed for 10.59pm on 29 March is designed to deal with the consequences of a nodeal Brexit. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-aviva-ireland-assets-moving-dublin-no-deal-planning-high-court-a8788156.html 21st Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian The European Medicines Agency has lost a high court battle to cancel its 500m longterm office lease in London to move to Amsterdam because of Brexit. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/european-medicines-agency-loses-bid-to-end-uk-lease-over-brexit 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay 52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels preparations for Brexit. Agreement on legislation exempting UK nationals from requiring the travel permit is mired in a dispute over whether the British overseas territory should be described as a colony in the EUs statute book. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

RTE.ie Groups representing retailers in Ireland Northern Ireland and the UK have issued a strong warning that a nodeal Brexit will lead to reduced availability of some goods. The joint statement from the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium Retail Ireland and British Retail Consortium also cautions that if Britain crashes out of the EU on 29 March food and drink prices will rise. The organisations say that in the event of a disorderly Brexit increased tariffs of up to 45 and new regulatory checks will result in higher costs to suppliers. https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0220/1031834-retail-brexit/ 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Independent Economic uncertainties after Brexit could make the UK more vulnerable to Chinese interference with Beijing using a variety of means to infiltrate Britains power structures a leading thinktank has warned. There has been little focus in Britain on how China preys on targeted countries and there is a need for a cohesive programme to counter it according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute which charts the tactics used by the ruling Chinese Communist Party CCP to achieve its aims. The report examines the concerted strategy allegedly used by Beijing ranging from spreading surreptitious technological reach through megacorporations like Huawei to the elite capture of people in important positions and opinionformers by the placing of advisers https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-china-interference-counter-intelligence-security-service-brexit-eu-asia-africa-tech-huawei-a8786876.html 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Independent Roaming charges have until recently been one of the most punishing things about going on holiday. And they soon could be again. Brexit has brought back fears that companies could reintroduce roaming fees and force people to pay extortionate amounts as they travel around Europe. Those charges disappeared because of EU rules and could come back when the UK leaves as a result of a No Deal Brexit https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-explained/brexit-deal-roaming-charges-mobile-phone-network-eu-europe-uk-cost-a8788806.html 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The New York Times Some British traders seem unaware of the shock a nodeal Brexit could deliver to the worlds fifthbiggest economy. Andrew Legere owner of Lantiques a dealership based in Petworth southern England has been buying and selling old French furniture for more than 25 years. I used to buy a lot of my stock in France but now I have an established network of British dealers who buy in France for me. Im anticipating that this should adequately sidestep the obstacle of Brexit said Mr. Legere. But wasnt he aware that from March 29 it will be difficult if not impossible for dealers to drive a van over to France and drive it back filled with antiques https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/20/arts/art-no-deal-brexit.html 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

BBC If the UK leaves the EU without a deal before the exchanges for the next academic year have been finalised then the government would need European agreement to keep taking part. That is true for both UK students planning to go to EU countries and EU nationals hoping to come to the UK. So the government has said that it will negotiate with the European Commission to try to get the 201920 programme agreed but those negotiations cannot start until after the UK leaves. That is why students have been receiving letters saying that the funding of their 201920 trips is uncertain. The Department for Education told BBC News that it was seeking to engage the Commission as soon as possible to seek clarification and discuss further what they are proposing. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47293927 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Hartlepool Mail With no Brexit deal in place and March 29 fast approaching fears are growing that the UK will struggle to maintain supplies of food currently sourced from the EU. A company producing 295 Brexit boxes containing freezedried food a water filter and firestarting gel recently said it has sold 600 showing that this issue is close to the hearts and stomachs of the British public. But clever marketing tricks aside it is worth emphasising that doomsday scenario shortages are not inevitable. https://www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/news/brexit-food-shortages-are-not-inevitable-keep-calm-and-don-t-panic-buy-1-9593023 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Lancashire Evening Post The EU is in the process of developing its own systems called Galileo and the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service EGNOS. The UK has been heavily involved with Galileo which is expected to be fully operational by the mid2020s and EGNOS which is already up and running. We have spent around 1.2billion on the two programmes while UK companies have also provided expertise. When the UK leaves the EU we will no longer be able to take part in any further development as the EU has said it must only be built by member states. Companies in the UK which have previously worked on satellite payloads and security systems will no longer be able to bid for contracts. https://www.lep.co.uk/news/drivers-will-still-have-access-to-satellite-navigation-systems-after-brexit-1-9606280 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian European commission investigators have raided salmon farming businesses in Scotland and other European countries in an inquiry into suspected pricefixing by Norwegian producers. The anticartel investigators raided sales offices owned by Mowi formerly Marine Harvest in Rosyth in Fife a Scottish Sea Farms site and a salmon farm operated by Grieg in Shetland on Tuesday as well as sites in the Netherlands and other EU member states. EU raids salmon farmers in Scotland in price-fixing inquiry 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian Sir David Warren former British ambassador to Tokyo says UKJapan trade and investment held hostage by Conservatives internal politics. Claims that Brexit had nothing to do with Honda closing its only UK manufacturing plant are fanciful according to a former British ambassador to Japan. The Japanese government has become increasingly vocal in recent weeks about the damage a nodeal Brexit would cause while a number of big Japanese corporations have announced restructures. The Japanese foreign minister Taro Kono said on Tuesday that it was absolutely necessary for the UK to avoid crashing out of the European Union without a deal. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/fanciful-to-say-honda-didnt-consider-brexit-when-closing-swindon-sir-david-warren 20th Feb 2019

Administrative Fall Out

BBC Newsnight BBC Newsnight reviews the Honda plant closure decision and then looks back at the history of the UK car manufacturing industry since the 1970s. Confirms Margaret Thatchers pledge for the UK to remain in the UK common market and improvements in industrial relations were behind the successful rise in car manufacturing right up to 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNNwICC4Ut0 19th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

iNews Conservative MP Phillip Lee sparked a row during the BBC Politics Live show on Wednesday after he branded Brexit a turd during a heated discussion. The Tory MP for Bracknell was discussing the latest defections of his colleagues Anna Soubry Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston to the centrist The Independent Group parliamentary bloc that has taken shape this week. While he said he did not feel it was the time to join them he took issue with the Conservatives embrace of Brexit since the 2016 vote. https://inews.co.uk/news/tory-mp-phillip-lee-brexit-turd-bbc-politics-live/ 21st Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Daily Record Anybody claiming a nodeal Brexit would be anything other than a catastrophe is either an idiot or a liar. Its a simple fact that crashing out of the EU without a deal would involve an economic shock that would be devastating for hundreds of thousands of people across the UK. This truth was driven home in a stark parliamentary statement by Scottish Constitutional Relations Secretary Mike Russell yesterday. The SNP minister revealed that official Scottish Government estimates suggest 100000 jobs would be lost in the aftermath of a nodeal Brexit. https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-must-rule-out-catastrophic-14023120 21st Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Sun Cabinet ministers have told Theresa May she must agree to delay Brexit if there is no EU deal to halt their Commons rebellion next week. Four of the PMs top table confronted her during a No10 meeting on Monday to insist she must take No Deal off the table. Amber Rudd David Gauke Greg Clark and David Mundell named a new pledge from Mrs May to extend Article 50 talks as their price not to side with backbench rebels during a new showdown with MPs in seven days time. If the PM refuses the senior ministers insisted they and 20 other members of the Government would press on with their vow to back Labour MP Yvette Cooper and Tory grandee Sir Oliver Letwins plan for Parliament to seize control of the Brexit process. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8269759/brexit-news-latest-theresa-may-eu-exit-delayed/ 21st Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC Fears over Brexit and the party drifting to the right and away from relevance are held far beyond todays three amigos but by dozens of MPs privately including ministers in the government. If as is likely more MPs move across those private pleas to stay in the centre ground have more weight. Like Labour the Tories have big questions they cant answer at the moment profound quandaries that its not clear their leaderships are ready or perhaps even capable right now of meeting. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47309514 21st Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Sky News Ministers and MPs who have doggedly supported Mrs Mays Brexit deal even of they dont like it much either were furious that this party within the party is dictating the terms of Brexit and pushing the country towards a nodeal. Now they are preparing to rise up to act as a counterweight to their eurosceptic colleagues. A group of up to 30 government ministers are preparing block a nodeal Brexit. They are working out how many of them need to resign from government in order to support the CooperLetwin amendment that will give parliament the power to take nodeal off the table. https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-if-theresa-may-wont-take-no-deal-off-the-table-her-mps-will-11642360 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian The mobile phones of Heidi Allen Sarah Wollaston and Anna Soubry were melting in the 24 hours before their departure. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/my-phone-is-melting-tory-defectors-bouyed-by-support 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC Theresa May has said progress has been made in talks about changes to the Brexit deal that could win MPs backing but admitted time is of the essence. The PM met the EUs JeanClaude Juncker in Brussels to discuss legallybinding guarantees over the Irish border. Earlier Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said small but important changes to the backstop would allay MPs concerns it could be trapped in a customs union. But Home Secretary Sajid Javid said the chances of a nodeal exit had risen. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47310896 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Politico.eu The Prime Minister acknowledged the EUs position and notably the letter sent by President Donald Tusk and President Juncker on 14 January. That letter to May stated that the Withdraw Agreement is not renegotiable. We are not in a position to agree to anything that changes or is inconsistent with the Withdrawal Agreement the two EU leaders wrote at the time. In their statement the two leaders said they explored which guarantees could be given with regard to the backstop that underline once again its temporary nature and give the appropriate legal assurance to both sides and they reconfirmed their commitment to avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland and to respect the integrity of the EUs internal market and of the United Kingdom. https://www.politico.eu/article/may-and-juncker-dive-into-brexit-fine-print/ 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Bloomberg The EUs position is that the treaty wont be reopened but can be interpreted or complemented with explanations that may be satisfactory said the minister who met EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier in Madrid on Tuesday. Josep Borrell was cautious as to whether whats on offer will be enough for U.K. politicians. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-20/brexit-accord-is-already-being-hammered-out-spain-says 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

openDemocracy Shanker Singham has been a nearconstant presence in British media in recent weeks often dismissing concerns about a nodeal Brexit. And as well as a constant stream of broadcast media invites for a man who refuses to reveal his paymasters Singham has enjoyed extraordinary access to government ministers including Michael Gove and Boris Johnson. Earlier this month Singham attended a meeting at the Cabinet Office between senior ERG figures Brexit secretary Steve Barclay and officials from all arms of government to discuss alternative arrangements for the Irish backstop. Theresa May was said to be clearly taking this exercise seriously. Between them influential darkmoneyfunded lobbyists like Singham and proBrexit MPs have sought to play down fears about Brexit and particularly a nodeal departure from the EU. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of pounds of dark money has poured into social media ads warning MPs not to steal Brexit and promoting the UK leaving the EU on WTO rules. https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/peter-geoghegan-jenna-corderoy/revealed-how-dark-money-is-winning-brexit-influencing-ga 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Sun Amber Rudd David Gauke Greg Clark and David Mundell named a new pledge from Mrs May to extend Article 50 talks as their price not to side with backbench rebels during a new showdown with MPs in seven days time. If the PM refuses the senior ministers insisted they and 20 other members of the Government would press on with their vow to back Labour MP Yvette Cooper and Tory grandee Sir Oliver Letwins plan for Parliament to seize control of the Brexit process. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8474362/remain-ministers-theresa-may-must-delay-brexit/ 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Reuters Home Secretary Sajid Javid said on Wednesday that the risk of a nodeal Brexit has risen and that the option could not be taken off the table. It is not possible to rule out a nodeal Brexit Javid told ITV in an interview https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-javid/risk-of-no-deal-brexit-has-risen-home-secretary-sajid-javid-idUKKCN1QA01A?feedType=RSS&ampfeedName=domesticNews 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Independent An exTory MP who left the party for a breakaway group has said that the battle for the Conservative Party was over because hardright Brexit extremists have won. Anna Soubry a former minister said the right wing the hardline antiEU awkward squad was running the party from top to bottom. Speaking hours after she announced her resignation from the Conservatives alongside Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston the Broxtowe MP also launched a scathing attack on Theresa May saying she had failed to reach out to moderate Tory MPs. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/independent-group-tory-mps-anna-soubry-sarah-wollaston-heidi-allen-brexit-a8788391.html 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said small but important changes to the backstop would allay MPs concerns it could be trapped in a customs union. But Home Secretary Sajid Javid said the chances of a nodeal exit had risen. Speaking on ITVs Peston show to be broadcast later on Wednesday Mr Javid said it was fair to say that in the past few weeks the probability of a nodeal Brexit has gone up. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47310896 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

@IanDunt Bit of breaking news here. Theres an amendment secretly doing the rounds which would force the government to try protect Brits rights in Europe in the event of nodeal and it looks set to succeed https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098272979455229952 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

Politics.co.uk A smart new amendment looking to guarantee citizens rights even in the event of nodeal is doing the rounds in Westminster. Its picking up support from across the Tory party from ERG types to the moderate wing making it highly likely to pass. Its a skillful bit of legislative footwork. The amendment will be put down by Tory MP Alberto Costa. Its designed to be attached to Theresa Mays motion on her deal during the meaningful vote on February 26th. It reads like this This House considers the prime ministers statement of 26th February and requires the prime Minister to seek at the earliest opportunity a joint UKEU commitment to adopt part two of the withdrawal agreement on citizens rights and ensure its implementation prior to the UKs exiting the European Union whatever the outcome of negotiations on other aspects of the withdrawal agreement. http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02/20/last-minute-gambit-smart-new-amendment-to-may-deal-protects 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

@VinceCable We will hold out the hand of friendship to the independent MPs with whom we already have a good working relationship. In the short term we must focus on securing a Peoples Vote with an option to stay in the EU. https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/1098190995437568000 20th Feb 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian Three Conservative MPs who resigned to join a new independent group on Wednesday said Theresa May had allowed their former party to fall prey to hardline Brexiters and declared that the Tory modernising project had been destroyed. In the latest evidence that Brexit is reshaping the political landscape Heidi Allen Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston all outspoken critics of Mays stance on Europe said the Conservative party as they had known it under David Cameron was dead. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/tory-mps-defect-independent-group-soubry-allen-wollaston 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Sky News When historians come to write the story of Brexit where will their account begin The year it all started to go wrong for David Cameron was 2012 first Greece teetered on default and the EU took a highly publicized austerity stance. This threw the Euro into crisis and in turn the political project went into the mixer https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-became-inevitable-while-we-were-all-looking-the-other-way-11614522 21st Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Sun Theresa Mays Tory party was pushed close to breaking point on Wednesday as three prominent MPs walked out to join the new Independent Group. Former Cabinet minister Anna Soubry Commons Health Committee chair Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen stunned Westminster with the defection. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8473872/tories-breaking-point-mps-defect-independent-group/ 21st Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Politico.eu Just over 3 kilometers away from the Commissions Berlaymont building a giant electronic billboard in Brussels Place De Brouckre shows one of Mays tweets from April 2016. It says I believe it is clearly in our national interest to remain a member of the European Union. The billboard is the work of Led By Donkeys an antiBrexit group that posts according to its Twitter bio the Brexit predictions of our leaders rendered as tweets then put on massive billboards. https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-trolled-in-brussels-by-anti-brexit-group/ 21st Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC Downing Street expects a revised Brexit deal in the offing possibly ready for the House of Commons to vote on early next week. EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is still talking about a worrying political impasse. Jean Claude Juncker the president of the European Commission says he expects no breakthrough during his meeting with Mrs May but that is polite language compared to what Im hearing behind the scenes. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47305387 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Sky News The Sunday Times reported that Sir Jim and two of his fellow Ineos shareholders had been working on a restructuring of the company to enable them to reduce their tax bills by huge sums of money potentially running into billions of pounds. Britains largest private company Ineos redomiciled to Switzerland following a row over its VAT liabilities but returned to the UK in 2016. https://news.sky.com/story/may-met-ineos-chair-for-off-roader-talks-as-tax-row-loomed-11642826 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Express.co.uk Former pensions minister Baroness Altmann said she felt disillusioned with the Ukipisation of the Tory party before declaring she would happily sign up for a moderate splinter party in the event of a nodeal Brexit. She emotionally warned of the risks of Britain leaving the EU without a deal before adding the Conservatives are being infiltrated by Ukip. She told the Daily Telegraph I want to cry I want to weep at what we are doing. If a group of likeminded Conservatives give up on the Conservative Party because it is intent on taking the UK out of the EU without a deal then I would consider supporting them. https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1090032/brexit-news-independent-group-Ros-Altmann-theresa-may-withdrawal-agreement-tory-split 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC The UKs former ambassador to the EU has warned there will be a hard border in Ireland if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. Sir Ivan Rogers was giving evidence to the Lords EU Committee. He said that if a hard Irish border was to be avoided in a nodeal scenario there would instead have to be a border in the Irish Sea https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-47311212 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Yorkshire Post Three MPs have quit the Conservative Party to join the new Independent Group TIG in a major blow to Theresa Mays authority. Heidi Allen Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston hit out at the Prime Ministers disastrous handling of Brexit as they quit https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/conservative-mps-heidi-allen-anna-soubry-and-sarah-wollaston-quit-party-in-protest-at-brexit-stance-1-9605872 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Yorkshire Post We now stand on the precipice of disaster. And wasnt it always going to come to this with Theresa May The Prime Minister chose a course which pleased no one hiring one arch Brexiteer after another challenging them to follow through on her promises of free trade unicorns and postBrexit nirvana only to see them achieve nothing and resign. She pushed back on any form of crossparty consensus All this while the clock ticks towards the March 29 deadline. We are where we are. Now is the time for an honest appraisal of the situation facing the country and for grown up levelheaded and practical solutions. It is my contention that the most practical way of dealing with our March deadline is to extend Article 50. https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/alex-sobel-why-it-is-now-vital-that-we-extend-article-50-over-brexit-1-9607138 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Portsmouth News Royal Navy ships will not be used to protect British fishermen from their French counterparts after Brexit a defence minister has revealed. The decision was confirmed by armed forces minister Mark Lancaster this week and comes following a series of bizarre clashes between UK and French fisherman last year dubbed The Scallop Wars. https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/defence/royal-navy-will-not-step-in-to-bodyguard-british-fishermen-from-aggressive-french-trawlers-after-brexit-1-8818660 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Shropshire Star Leaving the European Union will serve to strengthen devolution within the UK Scottish Secretary David Mundell is to argue. He will use a speech to mark the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Scottish Parliament to reject claims from the Scottish Government that Brexit will damage devolution. The decision to quit the EU has increased tensions between Theresa Mays Westminster Government and Nicola Sturgeons Edinburgh administration. https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2019/02/21/david-mundell-vows-brexit-will-strengthen-devolution/ 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Times The Conservative Party membership appears to be hollowing out traditional Conservatives while former Ukip members strengthen the antiEuropean right of the party he said in a speech in Glasgow. In parliament the European Research Group ERG has become a party within a party with its own whips its own funding and its own priorities. Some of its more extreme members have little or no affinity to moderate pragmatic and tolerant conservatism. The ERG does not represent a majority view but with a minority government as now can determine policy simply by being intransigent. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b22ce7fc-3495-11e9-a129-05a1d4d7c2a2 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

City A.M. Theresa May and EU Commission President JeanClaude Juncker last night discussed possible guarantees and legal assurances that could be established in relation to the controversial Irish border backstop protocol that has dogged the PMs efforts to pass her Withdrawal Agreement. However May failed to win concessions on her bid to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement in full meaning any changes would be in the form of a supplementary resolution. http://www.cityam.com/273578/theresa-may-fails-get-brexit-deal-changes-discussed-jean 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

BuzzFeed.News European governments and EU officials say they are puzzled by recent optimistic reports in the British press of an emerging Brexit deal. As the clock ticks down to Brexit day the UK press is once again rife with stories suggesting imminent breakthroughs and speculation that a deal in the desert could be signed in Sharm ElSheikh on the sidelines of an EULeague of Arab States summit taking place in Egypt this weekend. https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/european-officials-brexit-reports-press?utm_source=dynamic&amputm_campaign=bfsharetwitter 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Politics Home Labour has suspended Derek Hattons membership of the party just days after it was confirmed that he had been readmitted. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/101997/derek-hatton-suspended-labour-just-two-days-after 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

@SkyNewsPolitics @jessphillips says if you are not in @jeremycorbyns gang it feels like you have no role in the party. She adds that she was born Labour but finds it hard to disagree with the issues raised by the eight MPs who have quit. https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1098209150616682496 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent The president of the European Commission has poured cold water on the possibility of a breakthrough in Brexit talks as he met with Theresa May in Brussels. The prime minister travelled to the EU capital on Wednesday night to meet JeanClaude Juncker and try to convince the bloc to change the agreement to make it more palatable to Tory MPs. Senior Tories were reportedly upbeat ahead of the meeting trailing the prospect of the prime minister returning to London with concessions but the message was not matched by officials in Brussels. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-jean-claude-juncker-brussels-meeting-eu-deal-commission-a8788561.html 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

@Channel4News Its a form of tyranny and its ironic that Conservatives observe and condemn it in the Labour Party but its happening in their own party. Anna Soubry announces she has left the Conservatives and criticises the infiltration of rightwing activists into the party. https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1098230125131456513 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Politics Home Joan Ryan has become the eighth Labour MP to quit to join the new Independent Group blaming Jeremy Corbyn for a culture of antisemitism in the party. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/101977/joan-ryan-blames-jeremy-corbyn 20th Feb 2019

Political Setbacks

Politics Home High Peak MP Ms George was responding to reports that a local Labour councillor had liked a Facebook comment describing the MPs involved in the breakaway as Israelis. She said she would condemn the calling of anyone as an Israeli when its not the case. But she then added The comment appears not to refer to the independent MPs but to their financial backers. Support from the State of Israel which supports both Conservative and Labour Friends of Israel of which Luciana was chair is possible and I would not condemn those who suggest it especially when the groups financial backers are not being revealed. Its important for democracy to know the financial backers for any political group or policy. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/101970/labour-mp-apologises-after-claiming-new 19th Feb 2019

Trade Deals/Negotiations

The Guardian ISDS clauses in trade deals allow foreign investors to sue national governments for any measures that harm their profits. These cases take place in secretive private arbitration courts and can cost the taxpayer billions. Previous cases brought against governments using ISDS include a Swedish energy firm suing Germany for introducing policies to curb water pollution US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly suing Canada for trying to keep medicines affordable and French multinational Veolia suing Egypt for increasing its national minimum wage. ISDS courts give international investors a legal system that neither ordinary people or domestic businesses can access with low levels of transparency no appeals system and high costs. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/much-to-fear-from-post-brexit-trade-deals-with-isds-mechanisms 20th Feb 2019

EU Funding Benefits

Lancashire Evening Post Lancashire could receive European Union cash to create a special investment fund less than a month before Brexit. Lancashire County Council cabinet members will be asked whether they want to approve the arrangements for establishing an Urban Development Fund UDF on 7th March. The board of the Lancashire Enterprise Partnership LEP heard at a recent meeting that the process was time critical and had to be completed before the UK is due to leave the EU on 29th March. https://www.lep.co.uk/news/politics/lancashire-could-land-eu-cash-weeks-before-brexit-1-9605614 20th Feb 2019